Crash 40% Down, In Two Weeks

Quote from Chood:

So far so good on triggers pulled since Tuesday last week, date of post shown below. Here's the status report thus far:

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks plunged, capping the Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst week since early March, as concern intensified banks will be saddled with losses on mortgage bonds...
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Thus far, from two Tuesdays ago, I have legged in short positions in these equity spaces: mining, gaming (Vegas exposure versus other), and pharma. Last puzzle pieces to be added this week, in financial services. No retail, auto, energy, or transportation.

I’d be interested to hear from anyone else who is taking short positions in equities, particularly the reasons for the positions. I’ll give you mine.
 
S&P chimed in this morning, "sees Q2 earnings growth of 5.7%, Q3 earnings growth of 2.4%, double-digit growth returning by end of 2007 and market has 1-3 years for bull market to 'charge along.'"

Bloomberg this morning has some data out regarding the performance of sectors following the normalization of an inverted yield curve. Consumer discretionary stocks and technology led the way with 20%+ advances following such periods.

You guys betting on a black swan? There doesn't seem to be anything out there to bring about such a dramatic crash.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

. . .

You guys betting on a black swan? There doesn't seem to be anything out there to bring about such a dramatic crash.
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For me, it's not a black swan expectation, merely an informed guess that I can buy a stock trading at 100 today for 80 within nine months to a year, without it first trading at a level (say, 120) which would melt my account and resolve.
 
Quote from Chood:

Let me guess, 'bout now, those Blackstone buyers are lovin that risk free money.
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there is HUUUUGGGEEEE risk in stocks...


stocks suck and go down..


Indexes are ZERO RISK FREE MONEY $$$



not stocks, never have been
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

there is HUUUUGGGEEEE risk in stocks...


stocks suck and go down..


Indexes are ZERO RISK FREE MONEY $$$



not stocks, never have been
More...

Geez, thanks for straightening me out on that one. Guess I've been confused all along, mistaking this Blackstone thing for a correlative and signal for more general price action (i.e., an index), as in this post of mine February this year:

"How about some of the private equity deals being done today? How do you imagine those huge investments will be cashed out in the end? Through IPOs with gargantuan floats, that's how. Who will be the float subscribers? Herds of sheeple fearful for their retirement, or just plain fearful or giddy, believing the Pied Pipers of stock land."
 
Quote from frank grimes:

If there is risk in stocks, doesn't logic follow that there is indeed risk in the indexes?
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No. He is saying that idiosyncratic risk divided by systemic risk approaches infinity. :D
 
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