Hey Digs, thanks a lot for posting the jpeg. I would've never caught that by myself.
Time to put on some livermore-esque trades
Time to put on some livermore-esque trades
Crash 40% Down, In Two Weeks
- Thread starter Digs
- Start date
holy grail I think you found the hold grail
I'll take Gross' view of bonds almost any time, more so now in light of my own opinion that this equity market is highly fragile -- a condition produced by trends and factors far longer and of much older vintage than many of you likely have in mind.
I've been waiting to pull the trigger on some stock shorts I have had in mind for awhile. Starting now.
Thoughts for the day and next few weeks:
Don't get left at the gate.
Knock quick, win big.
I thought you said it was mostly fundamentals?
Jeffalvinson says... Millions of investors who bought into the 2000 high's and never sold, finally had a chance to break-even after 7 years!
Now we got to ask ourselves the following question:
Is this a normal selloff created by the resistance of the 2000
inventory supply, or is this something more?
Jeff, i would think that there is simply psychological resistance at the old 2000 high. Frankly, investors who never sold in 2000 were those who were in mutual funds and don't follow the market day to day. They didn't follow it then and they don't follow it now. I doubt that that explanation holds much water. It's more likely that the drop is a combination of psychological resistance at an old market top (minor) and the steep increase in bond yields (major). There is no reason at this point to be long in the intermediate term, and i suspect those who are, foolishly IMO, buying "the dip" at this point are going to be badly burned. But if we are traders, what do we care? All we need is some volatility, which right now we have. Incidentally i also have investment accounts to manage but i watched the ten-year closely and moved them to 90+% money market very near the top at the opening on the first big down day. Those accounts will stay in cash until the smoke clears and we make a nice bottom. Right now it looks to me like we are forming a classic head and shoulders top and if we break down below the neckline we should see a further correction. If we don't, well then it's time to reconsider.
Now we got to ask ourselves the following question:
Is this a normal selloff created by the resistance of the 2000
inventory supply, or is this something more?
Jeff, i would think that there is simply psychological resistance at the old 2000 high. Frankly, investors who never sold in 2000 were those who were in mutual funds and don't follow the market day to day. They didn't follow it then and they don't follow it now. I doubt that that explanation holds much water. It's more likely that the drop is a combination of psychological resistance at an old market top (minor) and the steep increase in bond yields (major). There is no reason at this point to be long in the intermediate term, and i suspect those who are, foolishly IMO, buying "the dip" at this point are going to be badly burned. But if we are traders, what do we care? All we need is some volatility, which right now we have. Incidentally i also have investment accounts to manage but i watched the ten-year closely and moved them to 90+% money market very near the top at the opening on the first big down day. Those accounts will stay in cash until the smoke clears and we make a nice bottom. Right now it looks to me like we are forming a classic head and shoulders top and if we break down below the neckline we should see a further correction. If we don't, well then it's time to reconsider.
so where is the crash? Hmmmmmmmm?
keep your guard up, looking for the second stage downward attempt, even if the downward attempt takes out previous lows, all it will do is throw some long term players out of the bullish side.
the downward attempt washes out people and confuses the market and implies further follow through. Take a close look at other declines on the daily chart. The information is there.
the downward attempt washes out people and confuses the market and implies further follow through. Take a close look at other declines on the daily chart. The information is there.
Could you elaborate on the above quote, specifically on the following points:
1) Which downward attempt? If it is on the daily, from where to where?
2) Which 'other declines'? You mean previous declines in the DOW or the SP, or do you mean in other declines throughout the world's markets?
3) You say "the information is there." OK, I don't doubt that to be true, but could you offer some suggestions on how to closely look at the other declines in the daily chart?
Thanks in advance!
JP