Crash 40% Down, In Two Weeks

[Spectre2007]

if you look at the current chart pattern its very similar to the ascent that started in '95.

some factors against a crash:

1) low volatility
2) summer
3) broke and closed above previous highs.
4) double top didnt print, confirmation with price action at the highs is needed
5) bond market retracing losses
6) money waiting for a crash to buy into
7) rapid pace of globalization
8) oil dropped
9) gold dropped

 

[bsparkyman]

How many bearish calls has he missed since 82? He should go be a porn actor with that stash...

Quote from Digs:

..."The OP's finding appears uncanny. Plus you have PIMCO's boss (no slouch he) saying he's bearish on bonds for the first time in how long (since 1982, right? another coincidence?)."...

.."(no slouch he)"... : I disagree, Bil Gross has made huge calls and been wrong. One was the INDU to 6000.

With his most recent call, he was really talking up his own position. I am not saying he's wrong. But his batting average is no better than any others.

 

[stock_trad3r]

lots of negativity regarding this

 

[bsparkyman]

Agree!!! Equities are the last asset class for assention! Buybacks, earnings, falling housing, better return than bonds despite raising rates. PE's will peak into the low 20's before earnings trail.

Quote from Spectre2007:

if you look at the current chart pattern its very similar to the ascent that started in '95.

some factors against a crash:

1) low volatility
2) summer
3) broke and closed above previous highs.
4) double top didnt print, confirmation with price action at the highs is needed
5) bond market retracing losses
6) money waiting for a crash to buy into
7) rapid pace of globalization
8) oil dropped
9) gold dropped

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from marketsurfer:

in an extremely rare, surpressed video, PTJ shows the actual charts he used to nail the crash, comparing 29 to 87.

surf

Marketsurfer,

Any ideas where one can find this video?

JP

 

[Spectre2007]

I anticipate a summer range trade, till the bigboys come back from their beach houses.

 

[rateesquad]

Quote from marketsurfer:

in an extremely rare, surpressed video, PTJ shows the actual charts he used to nail the crash, comparing 29 to 87.

surf

For that matter why does anyone compare 95 to now....

Everything has changed.....remember a lot more people trade now then before....since 2000...the charts patterns are not the same...well ok some of it...but you cant compare 20th century to the 21st it is just ludicrous.

 

[Spectre2007]

volatility and price action are similar.

the low volatility crawl up is very similar to that period.

 

[patoo]

Quote from rateesquad:

For that matter why does anyone compare 95 to now....

Everything has changed.....remember a lot more people trade now then before....since 2000...the charts patterns are not the same...well ok some of it...but you cant compare 20th century to the 21st it is just ludicrous.

I give you the situation was different in 1994, but the price action from December 1994 looks the same as now.

Thats what gave us the meltdown in 2000. Momentum trading, Abby Cohen, "the new market", and all the rest

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from rateesquad:

For that matter why does anyone compare 95 to now....

Everything has changed.....remember a lot more people trade now then before....since 2000...the charts patterns are not the same...well ok some of it...but you cant compare 20th century to the 21st it is just ludicrous.

The market never changes. It is a reflection of human psychology and human psychology does not change!!!