My recollection is that Cramer talked a bullish line on the NASDAQ through all
of 2000 and well into the beginning of 2001. He called it a bear market when
$COMPX finally reached about 60% down in February. I don't remember much of
what he said after that point. I rather suspect he was recommending specific
buys all the way down to the bottom in 2002-2003.
I remember listening on and off to Kudlow and Cramer during that whole period:
they always seemed to have reasons why the latest meltdown was nothing more
than a great new buying opportunity. I could be wrong about that, but it's
what I seem to remember.
I don't think, on the whole, that the pair of them served any of their
listeners who happened to be mostly long term investors very well. They
should have been advising caution, telling people to take a little bit off of
the table, especially if they had a longer time horizon, and had moved into
the high flyers in a big way.
Signs of a major top were everywhere even before the beginning of 2000. Even
I could tell that, by considering some of the outrageously good short term
returns that I had gotten, for doing nothing more than buying stocks that looked
hot and trying to dump them for a quick profit. I mean, I'ld only started
in the mid-1990's. It was just too good to be true. And there were definitely
experienced traders around who were bearish in the late 1990's. I benefitted
a great deal by listening to them.
I was very late doing it, but did manage to limit the drawdowns I suffered in
my IRAs, which I had been leaving 100% long stocks.
The trouble, to be fair to Cramer, myself, and all of the other permabulls
from that time, was that each drop really did look, at first, like it was a
buying opportunity. There were some major dips during the bull years too, and
each time it had proven correct to buy into those dips.
Surprisingly enough, it's not always easy to know when conditions have
changed, even once they actually have.
