Cramer says sell HB's 1 week before fed cut

covered all my homebuilders yesterday (RYL +20ish, LEN +19ish, KBH +16ish) went long today after cut should get a decent bounce before making lower lows later this yr or early next, that was a nice squeeze on hov too bad i didn't get any of it :(
 
Great call silk.

I bought BZH on friday morning when i noticed some of the others in the group were gaining some strength. Already up over 25% in less than 3 days. They could really throw some gas on this fire if there is anything even remotely positive in tomorrows housing #s.

Thanks man!
 
Citi upgrade H. Builders to "BUY"...

quick quote

symbol/price/date/book
CTX 27.47 10/1/2007 9:59am CTX $26 9/10/2007 $39
BZH 8.33 10/1/2007 9:59am BZH $9.45 9/10/2007 $37
KBH 25.43 10/1/2007 9:59am KBH $26.25 9/10/2007 $31
DHI 13.13 10/1/2007 9:59am DHI $13.69 9/10/2007 $18
MHO 14.04 10/1/2007 9:59am MHO $14.90 9/10/2007 $41
HOV 11.53 10/1/2007 9:59am HOV $9.99 9/10/2007 $27
MTH 14.1 10/1/2007 9:59am MTH $15.95 9/10/2007 $36
 
The thing that keeps me from investing in home builder stocks is that most of their assets are tied up in inventory. Couple that with the high debt to equity ratio of the sector and I think the discounts are justified. If bankcuptcies start hitting the sector you can expect at least a 75% mark down from these prices.
 
There is no way in hell any of the book values you listed are even remotely close to the true values. Even after the enormous writedowns seen in the sector there is still a long way to go.

The upgrade today was a joke. Stephen Chen upgraded the sector around this time last year and put price targets on a few of the builders above their all-time highs. Now there is a credible guy for you.
 
They'll go up as long as market go up. What's the point...? everything will go up as long as markets up. Nothing matters. Just print money and everything will be A-OK , says Bernanke.

Quote from GSH1976:

There is no way in hell any of the book values you listed are even remotely close to the true values. Even after the enormous writedowns seen in the sector there is still a long way to go.

The upgrade today was a joke. Stephen Chen upgraded the sector around this time last year and put price targets on a few of the builders above their all-time highs. Now there is a credible guy for you.
More...
 
Quote from dividend:

I think many people are confused about this trade.

The play is an event trade. The event of course is the rate cut. The play doesn't really have to take into consideration the long term price of HBs.

However I think every hedgefund on this planet is doing this same play. This could get ugly if they try to game each other.

But rate cut is negative because it pulls the floor out of the USD. From here on out I think high commodities prices are a negative sign of inflation, not a positive sign of true DEMAND.

One day maybe bonds will tank and interest rates will be jacked up so fast it will make even Volker's head spin.
More...

Update:

* 2 year note spikes up in its biggest two-day yield increase in 26 years.
 
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