Thats why I hope you guys own good dividend paying oil stocks as a hedge.
Cramer says $125, Jim Jubak says $180!!!!!
- Thread starter S2007S
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Thats why I hope you guys own good dividend paying oil stocks as a hedge.
The number of SUV's you see will decline, but this is a multi year phenomenon. It's too soon to notice a decrease on the streets. Believe me though, GM notices.
From a traders or investors point of view, timing is important. Jubak is one of the smartest prognosticators of future trends, but his timing can easily be off the mark.
When you see the dollar strengthening you will see crude declining. The dollar is back to about 104 vs. the Yen. That is promising. I'm expecting crude to take a breather about where it is and maybe pull back a little. We know demand is increasing world-wide, but not nearly so fast as price. The key is the Fed and the dollar. Further dollar weakness in the near term, and we will see further crude increases in the near term. A strengthening dollar, and we will see crude moderate. Remember that for the Europeans crude is ~Euro 70 a barrel. And certainly one can't ignore the immediate effect of futures speculation, but there is a finite amount of oil storage capacity worldwide.
I wouldn't hazard a guess on what the dollar would do from here, but i suppose it depends on how much the Fed and Treasury feels the need to pump the market further to keep investors psychology on the upbeat side versus how much pressure they are feeling from inflation. (They are still looking through rose tinted glasses using their phoney "core" inflation figure, but the public, who hasn't a clue, could become restive.) But the dollar, in the short run , is key --not demand growth, that is a longer term factor. (Naturally, shifts in current demand and supply do add volatility.)
Should the dollar strengthen over the summer, along with gas prices rising to 4.00 to 4.50 range, then i think we can see a return to more typical refiner margins.
For the record, I'm taking a little crude off the table about here, because i see signs of the dollar strengthening a bit. If crude continues to soar non-stop, so be it. If it pulls back, i'll be right back in.
I never understood this argument: with futures you always have someone on both sides of the trade...
That info is not correct...it doesn't cost anymore than last year or the year before to extract oil
Btw, the khurai oil field will not come on line until next year (optimistically).
It's relatively simple. If you're speculating that crude is going to go higher you sell a contract to deliver in the future at a higher price. In that case you better buy some oil at the current spot price and store it so you can meet your obligation to deliver. Of course this kind of speculation causes production to be stored, and thus removed from the current market, helping to drive price higher, or so you hope. When the contract subsequently changes hands it still, supposedly, is backed by an underlying tank of crude somewhere.