Cramer: Illegal Immigrants to Blame for Mortage Crisis

Quote from slapshot:

As a full-time mortgage broker, that does many sub-prime loans, I can state unequivocally that this post is crap as it relates to mortgages.

Lenders may have taken on too much risk as part of the houseing bubble just like anyone else but they ALL do their diligence - sub-prime lenders much more than most.

It would be much easier to fake an A paper loan. Subprime lenders are suspicious and look for problems.

And the fraud percentage is tiny overall.


Riiiiight.....that's how something like 10% of subprimes default on their very 1st payment. Good due diligence there
 
Quote from vhehn:

Cramer needs a scapegoat so he can blame someone else for his call to buy LEND about 20 points ago. Booya you have been cramered.

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Quote from HolyGrail:

All you have to do is apply to the government of the US to emmigrate here. It just takes too long to process the information.

You can apply to work here(green card) after which you can apply for permanent status.

You can apply if you have a relative in the US.

You can apply if you are an entepreneur in your country and would like to establish a business in the US or operate in the US.

You can request asylum in the US.

You can have a sponsor.


I'm sure there are many other ways as well. Unless you know someone that can get rid of the red tape you will be stuck for 5-7 years.

Now you know why they risk their lives to get here. If you have no hope where you are currently living you are not going to sit around in poverty waiting for something to happen.

I think it's great that people with "motivation" come to the US to better themselves and their families.

I have to admit my original question was somewhat rhetorical. I will try to address some of the paths to immigration you have suggested above, in particular as they might pertain to our hypothetical unskilled Mexican, who has never entered the US illegally or overstayed a visa.

"Sponsorship" can either be family based or employment based. A US person cannot sponsor an immigrant just because he feels like it.

Family Sponsored Immigration

This is the most plausible path for our hypothetical immigrant. Depending on the relationship of the sponsor to the immigrant, this process can take between a year and 23 (yes, twenty-three!) years and be subject to national quotas or not. The easiest case is that of marriage to a US citizen, which is not subject to per-country or global quotas. The marriage must be real and not one of convenience.

Employment Based Immigration

About 140,000 employment based immigrant visas are available every year. There are further per country limits within this number. There are several categories of employment based visas, with their own requirements and quotas within the total quota, which are outlined here:

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html

An examination of the above page shows that the only theoretically possible category for our unskilled Mexican would be the E3 category, but only if there are fewer than approximately 140,000 X 28.6% = 40,040 skilled degree holders with experience (roughly speaking) applying from the whole world for the year (let's not even consider the 7,000 p.a. quota for Mexico), which is a practically impossible situation.

Investor, Entrepreneur, etc.

The EB5 category is available for those potential immigrants who are able to invest $1,000,000 ($500,000 in deprived areas) in a business and employ 10 Americans. Needless to say, this is an unlikely category for our unskilled Mexican. Very few people apply for this category anyway, as the US is one of three countries which taxes the global income of its citizens, no matter where they reside. Wealthy foreigners are averse to this.

Asylum

This is a possibility if the immigrant can show he is subject to certain types of persecution, subject to many regulations. According to this article

http://www.guardian.co.uk/immigration/story/0,,1421580,00.html

the US granted 3,936 Mexicans asylum in the year 2000. Given the numbers and the requirements, this does not appear to be a viable path either.


The US immigration system is needlessly complex and, in my opinion, does not serve the national interest. The USA would do well to adopt a simple point based system like that of Canada for permanent immigrants, and a temporary work visa system for the millions of cheap labourers that the country seems to need.
 
Quote from bawr:

I have to admit my original question was somewhat rhetorical. I will try to address some of the paths to immigration you have suggested above, in particular as they might pertain to our hypothetical unskilled Mexican, who has never entered the US illegally or overstayed a visa.

"Sponsorship" can either be family based or employment based. A US person cannot sponsor an immigrant just because he feels like it.

Family Sponsored Immigration

This is the most plausible path for our hypothetical immigrant. Depending on the relationship of the sponsor to the immigrant, this process can take between a year and 23 (yes, twenty-three!) years and be subject to national quotas or not. The easiest case is that of marriage to a US citizen, which is not subject to per-country or global quotas. The marriage must be real and not one of convenience.

Employment Based Immigration

About 140,000 employment based immigrant visas are available every year. There are further per country limits within this number. There are several categories of employment based visas, with their own requirements and quotas within the total quota, which are outlined here:

http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html

An examination of the above page shows that the only theoretically possible category for our unskilled Mexican would be the E3 category, but only if there are fewer than approximately 140,000 X 28.6% = 40,040 skilled degree holders with experience (roughly speaking) applying from the whole world for the year (let's not even consider the 7,000 p.a. quota for Mexico), which is a practically impossible situation.

Investor, Entrepreneur, etc.

The EB5 category is available for those potential immigrants who are able to invest $1,000,000 ($500,000 in deprived areas) in a business and employ 10 Americans. Needless to say, this is an unlikely category for our unskilled Mexican. Very few people apply for this category anyway, as the US is one of three countries which taxes the global income of its citizens, no matter where they reside. Wealthy foreigners are averse to this.

Asylum

This is a possibility if the immigrant can show he is subject to certain types of persecution, subject to many regulations. According to this article

http://www.guardian.co.uk/immigration/story/0,,1421580,00.html

the US granted 3,936 Mexicans asylum in the year 2000. Given the numbers and the requirements, this does not appear to be a viable path either.


The US immigration system is needlessly complex and, in my opinion, does not serve the national interest. The USA would do well to adopt a simple point based system like that of Canada for permanent immigrants, and a temporary work visa system for the millions of cheap labourers that the country seems to need.

I was fairly certain it isn't a case of "All you have to do is apply to the government of the US to emmigrate here." That's kind of like saying all you have to do to replace Warren Buffett is send him your resume.
 
Quote from makloda:

DAMN HE NAILED IT!!!!!!! 100% TO THE POINT!!!!!!!!!!

By Jim Cramer
3/13/2007 6:04 PM EDT

We know that it will be hard to get a loan, but we also know that it should have been harder. We know that there will be a longer-lasting glut of homes on the market, but we also know that the homebuilders have cut back dramatically.

We know that the capacity has come out of the low-end lending business, but we also know, and this is gospel, that there will always be someone to lend to qualified buyers.

I have a sneaking suspicion that both undocumented immigrants and flippers -- guys who tried to buy a house high and sell it higher -- are behind most of the problems. And while the latter are still being hurt, the former have been thrown out of the game. So it is ironic that their actions, vintage 2006, are now hurting the market.

What the hell do you think? If somebody is illegal, how possible they get a loan and purchase the houses. They either brought their money from their original countries or made it here for a long time. See the point.
 
I don't think that we can blame people for wanting something better. The sad part is that their life often is not better in the states. When had a business one employee came here originally as an illegal (he had obtained a green card when he worked for me) and after a few months, was completely broke and homeless. With no money to travel back home,, he went to the police and told them he was illegal they told him to politely f#*k off. So he went to a INS building and the guards there told him to do the same. So he was stuck here and had no choice but to take on work for below minimum wage.
And having gone through the immigration process in the states myself i can tell you that they make it as difficult as possible to come here legally. My paperwork was lost by them 3 times and I had to refile, I was told to buy a house my the INS officer before I had even gotten status to prove my marrage here was legit, bearing in mind that i had no work permit or ssn at the time.
I don't blame any person for wanting a better life,, but I do blame the mexican and us government for doing very little to counter this problem that is hurting so many people american and mexican and benefiting a few wealthy indiviuals.
best wishes
 
I am already seeing reports that subprime issues and concerns have abated and that is why the markets are up today and yesterday. Can you imagine these issues going away within just a few days? They took years to build up and I think they will take 2-5 yrs to work off. Today's inflation numbers were not good and tomorrow we could be in for another surprise and turn! Certainly volatile times

http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
 
Quote from lauriston:

I am already seeing reports that subprime issues and concerns have abated and that is why the markets are up today and yesterday. Can you imagine these issues going away within just a few days? They took years to build up and I think they will take 2-5 yrs to work off. Today's inflation numbers were not good and tomorrow we could be in for another surprise and turn! Certainly volatile times

http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/

I completely agree with you. I think volatility will continue with a general downward trend over the coming weeks and months.

With these reports and numbers it seems like the market should be going down, yet it's not. Wonder if this is due to people thinking it's hit at or near bottom and tossing cash into it looking for bargains? If that's true could further drops create a mini panic resulting in an even larger correction?

Bonds anyone?
 
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