Cracks

[scriabinop23]

HO/CL Nov/Dec: 9.80, 2.45 x 42 - 93.10 = 9.80

RB/CL: 2.29 x 42 - 93.10 = 3.08


The heating oil crack probably has some serious upside - but I think this is a more worthwhile indicator of the speculation in crude.

It may blow off to 110 .... but the popping sound will be beautiful. Buy your Jan OTM USO puts now and just leave em alone.

 

[Gyrene Dertra]

The crack is a calendar crack, so you need to compare Dec to Dec. Once crude expires the crack is typically expressed in the month that is now front, so when Nov CL went off 10 days ago the Dec cracks became prompt.

The cracks have been quite weak given the strength in crude, which has been part of the reason pump prices have edged up only slightly (the other part I can't figure out, if anyone else has any ideas let me know), but with RBOB futures having jumped over 40 cents in the past few months I am now only paying a dime more than before.

In answer to your question about how low crack values have gone, they have traded negative before.