CPI Wednesday.

L

Laissez Faire

CPI for April (released May 15th). Forecast 3.4 % / Actual 3.4 %. The market traded higher into CPI and rallied 1.75 % to all time highs and closed up 1.68 % on the day. Chart below showing the entire week.

Prior to that this year, every CPI came in higher than forecast. With the exception of the March release (+ 1.08 % on the day), every prior CPI this year saw a decent dip on CPI day.

This particular Wednesday also have FOMC on the same day, so it could be an eventful day.

An educated guess would be that we inch higher into Wednesday and see a pretty decent rally as long as the CPI doesn't come out hot. If it comes out hot, watch out below, although we haven't seen any massive down days on this year's CPI days. For anyone swing trading it could be a good entry on the Close here or a dip overnight.

Any thoughts?

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Laissez Faire said:
CPI for April (released May 15th). Forecast 3.4 % / Actual 3.4 %. The market traded higher into CPI and rallied 1.75 % to all time highs and closed up 1.68 % on the day. Chart below showing the entire week.

Prior to that this year, every CPI came in higher than forecast. With the exception of the March release (+ 1,08 % on the day), every prior CPI this year saw a decent dip on CPI day.

This particular Wednesday also have FOMC on the same day, so it could be an eventful day.

An educated guess would be that we inch higher into Wednesday and see a pretty decent rally as long as the CPI doesn't come in hot. If it comes out hot, watch out below, although we haven't seen any massive down days on this year's CPI days. For anyone swing trading it could be a good entry on the Close here or a dip overnight.

Any thoughts?

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Sounds reasonable.
Maybe not a CPI day, but good gap peak to valley day \4-4-2024, thursday.
Ususual day\shorts[inverses]; ETFs like SPY....... went further down then expected, shallow upticks.
Good 2024 + JUNE uptrend, as of todays close.
 
Inch into Wednesday - check.

ES closed up 11,25 points today / + 0,21 % at 5384.

If we rally tomorrow...

1 % = 5438

1,5 % = 5465

2 % = 5491

If we drop - circa 5300 for a 1,5 % down looks like a probable target.

I'm sure that number will come out just beautiful, though. :)

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I won't claim victory yet and say it went as predicted as I couldn't possibly predict the number (although I had my suspicions), but the anticipated pattern is playing out as expected so far.

CPI came in 0.1 % below forecast, so obviously that was good news.

The shocker would be if today sells pre-FOMC, but I would guess this easily hits 1.5 % up today in RTH. ES futures up 0.89 % already.

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Laissez Faire said:
ES High = + 1,31 %. Close = + 0,79 %.

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Its 20-20 hindsight, but I still like that:D:D.
SPY, VOO +[QQQ] ........closed in WED bottom half of days move.
No wonder some did some exits. Some may have let the profits ride;
but can usually get back in, liquid stuff .
Good bull market uptrend.
DIA made less than average ,money market + some CDs, 2024,edit.
 
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