CPI - January 2022 CPI weight update

[kmiklas]

What does this mean?

My tinfoil-hat personality thinks that they're going to fiddle with the numbers in 2022. Did that 5% spike in July attract a bit too much attention?

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2021/2022-weight-update.htm

QFT:

 

[morganist]

What does this mean?

My tinfoil-hat personality thinks that they're going to fiddle with the numbers in 2022. Did that 5% spike in July attract a bit too much attention? View attachment 267329

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2021/2022-weight-update.htm

QFT:

View attachment 267327 View attachment 267328

They might be trying to fudge the inflation figures.

 

[kmiklas]

They might be trying to fudge the inflation figures.

That's what I'm afraid of.

Is it me, or is this announcement a bit cryptic?

 

[morganist]

That's what I'm afraid of.

Is it me, or is this announcement a bit cryptic?

I am not sure, but if there is real 'real' inflation it tends to show anyway even if they fudge the figures. It might be worth them fudging the figures a bit because 7.5% of the government debt is linked to inflation, so the cost of government debt repayment rises if inflation increases. Depending on which way you look at it they might be being responsible in terms of managing government debt return payments and like I wrote above if there is any really high inflation then you will see it anyway even if they fudge the figures.

 

[countryBoy641]

Using government generated statistics is like going to a casino that selects the cards that you are going to play. Oh Jeez ...

Here's $CRB (Commodity Research Bureau Index).
From the little I know, I would describe it as the Dow Jones of commodities.
Someone more knowledgeable can help clarify that.

Here's what it looks like over the several decades, since 1956, which is when apparently it became available:




Quite erratic. Yes.

Then from July 2008 to April 2020 (in this chart which displays percentage moves), down almost 76% for the period. What a loser. Deflation was the trade to be in.



And now, April 22 2020 to today (almost 18 months), up 107%. Now a big winner.
Inflation is the trade to be in.



The FED's implied role is to add stability.
In the past 15 years, they are, without question bigger and more powerful than ever.
So why are we seeing these huge swings in $CRB ??

 

[kroxobor]

What does this mean?

My tinfoil-hat personality thinks that they're going to fiddle with the numbers in 2022. Did that 5% spike in July attract a bit too much attention? View attachment 267329

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2021/2022-weight-update.htm

QFT:

View attachment 267327 View attachment 267328

basically inflation should become more precise and collection of data could be easier.

 

[kmiklas]

basically inflation should become more precise and collection of data could be easier.

Can you explain more in-depth? Specifically, the math of the changes, and how it realizes these results?

 

[Nine_Ender]

What does this mean?

My tinfoil-hat personality thinks that they're going to fiddle with the numbers in 2022. Did that 5% spike in July attract a bit too much attention? View attachment 267329

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2021/2022-weight-update.htm

QFT:

View attachment 267327 View attachment 267328

I think you sleep with a tin foil hat on. The surprise would be if you removed it.

 

[kmiklas]

Yeah... we get lied to so much. It's so
hard to believe a single word or number from any organization.

 

[morganist]

Yeah... we get lied to so much. It's so
hard to believe a single word or number from any organization.

His knowledge of the subject indicates he is a proper Trader, he looks like one too.

He is also correct that the figures get fudged.