Cows and price action

Ed Seykota once said there's a lot in common between bond price movements and the way cockroaches crawl up and down a wall.

I've been watching cows for a while now and see the same thing!

Let me explain.

There are two modes of cow movement:

1. wandering around

2. one starts to run and THEY ALL RUN!

For shepherds, you never want them to take off and run and I'm sure the same is true for CEOs of companies.

For speculators, there is a tremendous incentive to freak them out and induce a MANIA!

Just one cat's perspective (no relation to the other one livestreaming his pump job right now)
 
Ed Seykota once said there's a lot in common between bond price movements and the way cockroaches crawl up and down a wall.

I've been watching cows for a while now and see the same thing!

Let me explain.

There are two modes of cow movement:

1. wandering around

2. one starts to run and THEY ALL RUN!

For shepherds, you never want them to take off and run and I'm sure the same is true for CEOs of companies.

For speculators, there is a tremendous incentive to freak them out and induce a MANIA!

Just one cat's perspective (no relation to the other one livestreaming his pump job right now)

False equivalence. I've been following live cows for quite a bit. They are sticky above the 175 level.
 
Cattle futures. The herd has been wandering into the sky for years, then ran downhill and back up again. If only we could read their brains for the psychological switch, into PANIC MODE!

cowz.JPG
 
There is another mode of cow action that will materialize when they're not in a panic.

1a: Magnet Mode

They follow trails, fence lines, each other (they make that moo sound as a "shout out"), and a bull will wander for miles after the scent of a female that may be fertile. Then he will sit and wait for days until she wanders by.

This reminds me of volume profile (shown on the right vertical axis) which reveals how many transactions happen at each price level. They seem to line up with horizontal supports.

Price tends to run between the "hills" of this volume profile, or it just snaps back like a magnet.

Just like the wandering few cowz across my fence who keep trying to go home to their companions, then change their minds and wander back!
 
That video shows what's needed to contain the beasts when they're in PANIC MODE.

But did you know they will obey a single seventeen guage metal wire (holding 7000 volts), suspended from a 5/8" fiberglass pole, when they're in Wandering Mode?

The transition from Wandering Mode to PANIC MODE is the golden pivot all trend traderz wait for, sometimes for weeks, not unlike a strapping bull on the scent of a heifer in heat!
 
The cost of raising cows could be mooving up.
https://apnews.com/article/denmark-cow-tax-greenhouse-gases-9a570518639e0a1990806fd1a05ac11a
Gassy cows and pigs will face a carbon tax in Denmark, a world first
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FILE - Cows graze in a field in Luncavita, Romania, on May 21, 2019. Denmark will impose cattle farmers with a tax on livestock carbon dioxide emissions from 2030, claiming it will be the first country to do so, in a move to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from each of their cows. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

BY JAN M. OLSEN
Updated 10:19 AM CDT, June 26, 2024
COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Denmark will tax livestock farmers for the greenhouse gases emitted by their cows, sheep and pigs from 2030, the first country to do so as it targets a major source of methane emissions, one of the most potent gases contributing to global warming.

The aim is to reduce Danish greenhouse gas emissions by 70% from 1990 levels by 2030, said Taxation Minister Jeppe Bruus.

As of 2030, Danish livestock farmers will be taxed 300 kroner ($43) per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030. The tax will increase to 750 kroner ($108) by 2035. However, because of an income tax deduction of 60%, the actual cost per ton will start at 120 kroner ($17.3) and increase to 300 kroner by 2035.


Researchers look to find methane-reducing feed for cows


Although carbon dioxide typically gets more attention for its role in climate change, methane traps about 87 times more heat on a 20-year timescale, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Levels of methane, which is emitted from sources including landfills, oil and natural gas systems and livestock, have increased particularly quickly since 2020. Livestock account for about 32% of human-caused methane emissions, says the U.N. Environment Program.

“We will take a big step closer in becoming climate neutral in 2045,” Bruus said, adding Denmark “will be the first country in the world to introduce a real CO2 tax on agriculture” and hoped other countries would follow suit.

New Zealand had passed a similar law due to take effect in 2025. However, the legislation was removed from the statute book on Wednesday after hefty criticism from farmers and a change of government at the 2023 election from a center-left ruling bloc to a center-right one. New Zealand said it would exclude agriculture from its emissions trading scheme in favor of exploring other ways to reduce methane.

Almost all of the methane from raising livestock, some 90%, comes from the way they digest, through fermentation, and is released as burps through their mouths. Cows make up most of this belched methane. Most of the remaining 10% of livestock methane comes off manure ponds on both pig and cattle operations.

In Denmark, the deal was reached late Monday between the center-right government and representatives of farmers, the industry and unions, among others, and presented Tuesday.

Denmark’s move comes after months of protests by farmers across Europe against climate change mitigation measures and regulations that they say are driving them to bankruptcy.

The Danish Society for Nature Conservation, the largest nature conservation and environmental organization in Denmark, described the tax agreement as “a historic compromise.”

“We have succeeded in landing a compromise on a CO2 tax, which lays the groundwork for a restructured food industry -– also on the other side of 2030,” its head Maria Reumert Gjerding said after the talks in which they took part.

A typical Danish cow produces 6 metric tons (6.6 tons) of CO2 equivalent per year. Denmark, which is a large dairy and pork exporter, also will tax pigs although cows produce far higher emissions than pigs.

The tax is to be approved in the 179-seat Folketing, or parliament, but the bill is expected to pass after the broad-based consensus.

According to Statistic Denmark, there were as of June 30, 2022, 1,484,377 cows in the Scandinavian country, a slight drop compared to the previous year.
 
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