Yes, hospitalizations peaked on January 8th, the death curve peak was on January 21th-22nd. (Occasional data dump peaks happen, but the deaths don't happen that day.)
So we have been in the down curve of the 3 wave in the US in the last 3 weeks. Hospitalizations actually fell to 50% of the peak. Since death usually lags 2-3 weeks, the fall off should be coming this week. And this is mostly without the effect of vaccination.
The last 2 days had back to back 2-2MM/day vaccination rates. This shows that the infrastructure is already there (and still expanding), so as long as the drug makers can supply it, and people are willing to take it, we are doing really good.
40 MM vaccines have been administered so far. Biden's 100 MM shots in 100 days will be easily achieved, my guess is probably 160-180MM. Let's just assume a 1.8MM/day average ongoing rate, because after J&J comes on (in 3 weeks), that is quite realistic. That would be 54MM per month, or about 11% of the adult population (of 255MM) with double shots. So by June 45-50% of adults going to be vaccinated. If we add 10-20% already immune (there is an overlap) that is 55-60% immune at the start of the summer.
My guess is that by 4th of July we are vaccinating school age kids and will be partying hard and maskless.
