"CoVID-19" is over.

[Overnight]

"Herd immunity" may just be wishful thinking.

Some studies have shown no antibodies in the blood 3-4 months after the afflicted had "recovered". If that's the case, there may be no effective vaccine..

Why would antibodies stay in the blood forever? Of COURSE they will disappear over time.

Basic immunology teaches that when the body gets a bug, it produces antibodies to fight the bug. If it's a new bug, the body learns from it, learns how to make antibodies after you get sick, and after the infection is gone, when reinfected, it will be better able to fight off the bug. By making new antibodies for it.

??

 

[gaussian]

Some studies have shown no antibodies in the blood 3-4 months after the afflicted had "recovered". If that's the case, there may be no effective vaccine.

This is really only half the story. If we can get the country with 80% of people with some form of immunity for a full year (80% vaccinated, half of that get boosters) we stand a good chance of reducing it to a common cold.

The trouble now is that with so many people getting sick the virus is getting a lot of chances to evolve. We reduce those chances and the virus once again becomes manageable. It can be treated similar to flu where you go get your COVID booster once a year during your annual check up and be done with it. If you space that out enough you'll have a good chance of slowing it down or stopping it.

 

[Nobert]

Describes well current/past few month events. Know that he has no love for the flu, but neither is afraid of it, yet can't speak about it to openly to avoid the damage being done to the project of VT.
(as other great ones like Musk - they're trapped by the perception of the public eye. Ouch. So much monie, yet such chains on what can be said and what is prohibited)

Timestamped, (the intro is nice tho) :

 

[Cuddles]

I guess, Walmart, Target, Sam's Club and that short is not part of the most businesses....

I didn't get what the OP wanted to say, but the title is stupid. 200K dead by September, 300K by end of the year was my prediction and we can easily do it. The reported numbers are 7 (death) or 11 days (infected) lagging. Considering that the death itself is lagging by at least 3 weeks, the 4th of July infected and dying won't show up in stats until the first week of August.

The daily dead is just under 1K, but should go over it probably this week. 1.2-1.4K dead per day until September and the pandemic is over? In September the schools open (well, or not) and the spread increases.

Sure the October surprise is going to be at least a vaccine announcement even if not the vaccination itself, but this story is still about at 1/3rd shall I say.

You haven't accounted for the "hospitals no longer reporting stats to CDC" fudge factor. Methinks it'll introduce an error of 25% on deaths, maybe 30% on cases. Looks like it started this weekend (announced las wednesday).

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Walmart and Sam's just started the mandate today. No other businesses have been requiring.

All businesses in Colorado, by state mandate as of a couple of days ago.

 

[DaveV]

You do realize that the nastiest spots right now are Florida, Arizona/New Mexico, and Tejas, right?

And let's not forget that the hardest hit countries in Europe were Italy and Spain. Which also happen to be the warmest countries in Europe.

 

[maxinger]

Covid 20, 21, 22, 23...... Are coming.


The person who named covid 19 must be very smart. Because he expects 20, 21 22, 23..... To come

 

[Pekelo]

You haven't accounted for the "hospitals no longer reporting stats to CDC" fudge factor.

Sure I did, that is why I am dead sure about the 200K by September. I agree it is about 25% higher than the reported (I think 40K unaccounted, but higher than average deaths this year) so we are already at 180K. That 20K will be easy in the next 6 weeks.
The extra 100K in the last 4 months will come from the lack of sunshine and people being indoors with relatives (holidays) and shopping.

 

[Pekelo]

Believe me----it's not required in most businesses.

Depends on where you live. I was in DC 3 weeks ago and everywhere mask was required. Now here in rural PA, not so much.

Believe me, yeah right, like I take your word.

Now going back to the topic, I said we are at 1/3rd. The second 3rd will be the next 4 months ending with the elections. More confusion, more deaths, students in school and not, who knows. By the end of the year there will be some kind of vaccination (for at least military and health care workers) and hopefully the last 3rd is going to finish with the Biden presidency and finally with a common sense, universal approach, ending when 2021 summer starts.

I am guessing/hoping for general population vaccination starting by next spring, thus by next summer, the pandemic should be mostly over.

 

[Cuddles]

Sure I did, that is why I am dead sure about the 200K by September. I agree it is about 25% higher than the reported (I think 40K unaccounted, but higher than average deaths this year) so we are already at 180K. That 20K will be easy in the next 6 weeks.
The extra 100K in the last 4 months will come from the lack of sunshine and people being indoors with relatives (holidays) and shopping.

you're on the old fudge factor standard. We were already undercounting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/off...unt-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

you gotta update your fudge factor to last week's changes

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/world/coronavirus-update.html#link-47bd459f