So, six months ago, the scare began -- and the sciency skeptics were like, "Errrm -- where's the (full) data? We need data. You're publicizing numbers and percentages that you *know* to be incomplete -- and when The Boy Who Cries 'Wolf!' (or who closes down whole economies) gets bloodied by the actual (viral) wolf, ....
... and so, to look around the world, those who responded logically have done fairly well, while those who chose not to respond at all, have been bloodied.
BUT IN THIS MORNING'S HEADLINES!!
• A nearly instantaneous "breathilizer" has performed well in field tests.
• Two promising vaccine trials are underway and *months* ahead of optimistic schedules.
but the coup de grace:
• "Face masks have been shown to reduce the spread of the virus, and we need our businesses to stay open, our schools to reopen, our economy to reopen -- and the data show that the way to avoid another shutdown is to wear a face mask." [paraphrased from somewhere..., despite the fact that the Surgeon General put out the same basic message a month ago, it's now accompanied by the phrase sought six months ago, "the data show..."
Not to be glib at all, but that's it -- that's the climax -- it's all denouement from here.
Is this priced into the market?
I think so. Which means that contributory "good news" will show little market effect, but confidence-sapping "bad news" (like a morphing virus) would have immediate downside effect.
Is this priced into the (U.S.) electorate?
Not by a long shot. Which means that the effect on unemployment, and the growing likelihood of structural employment shocks of long duration, and the attendant effect on U.S. disposable income, on spending, on re-investment, on durables, (and even later) on housing.... Ewwwwww.
Solution(s)??
Sure. Let's have the next generation take the hit. They never complain. Hell -- they're not even born yet. "Pffff!"
So, two denouements -- one short term (through November), and the other going out some years???
You got it, Clyde.
... and so, to look around the world, those who responded logically have done fairly well, while those who chose not to respond at all, have been bloodied.
BUT IN THIS MORNING'S HEADLINES!!
• A nearly instantaneous "breathilizer" has performed well in field tests.
• Two promising vaccine trials are underway and *months* ahead of optimistic schedules.
but the coup de grace:
• "Face masks have been shown to reduce the spread of the virus, and we need our businesses to stay open, our schools to reopen, our economy to reopen -- and the data show that the way to avoid another shutdown is to wear a face mask." [paraphrased from somewhere..., despite the fact that the Surgeon General put out the same basic message a month ago, it's now accompanied by the phrase sought six months ago, "the data show..."
Not to be glib at all, but that's it -- that's the climax -- it's all denouement from here.
Is this priced into the market?
I think so. Which means that contributory "good news" will show little market effect, but confidence-sapping "bad news" (like a morphing virus) would have immediate downside effect.
Is this priced into the (U.S.) electorate?
Not by a long shot. Which means that the effect on unemployment, and the growing likelihood of structural employment shocks of long duration, and the attendant effect on U.S. disposable income, on spending, on re-investment, on durables, (and even later) on housing.... Ewwwwww.
Solution(s)??
Sure. Let's have the next generation take the hit. They never complain. Hell -- they're not even born yet. "Pffff!"
So, two denouements -- one short term (through November), and the other going out some years???
You got it, Clyde.
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