That is true, but not always. That is the contention of the bet. And yes, mostly [only ?] locals can take advantage of it.Quote from atticus:
You're arguing microstructure, which is absurd. It's more likely the natural will outperform the synthetic due to microstructure, unless you're a local.
Quote from nitro:
Either way, and just for a bet. But you are right, I have to be careful.
Let's just make it a gentleman's bet.
I am willing to do the trade at mid.Quote from atticus:
It's not my bet, but let's assume that you're inside NBBO on your market. It's more than likely that the natural will outperform the synthetic for a taker of liquidity. Of course the market-maker will earn more on the synthetic as he is adding liquidity. So the bet is pointless and makes my point that this is a microstructure argument, not structural.
Hmmmm, I seem to have been shouldered aside in this mkt by experts...Quote from atticus:
We can't trade the box and make the bet, so how do you propose marking the synthetic to spot?
SPY options and spot are fungible.