Courtesy of Macro Man, Future Rationalizations as to Why Yellen Will Never Hike

Tsing Tao

Tsing Tao

Yellen gave uber dovish testimony again yesterday, showing everyone the Yellen put is alive and well. Yellen is clearly out of her league.

Great read.

"When Doves Fly"

April 27: Insufficient evidence of China recovery, non quarterly meeting (unofficial)

June 15: 8 days before Brexit vote, too dangerous to risk market volatility

July 27: Summer markets are too illiquid to handle a hike, non quarterly meeting (unofficial)

September 21: Too close to US election

November 2: Too close to US election, non quarterly meeting (unofficial)

December 14: You saw what happened after the last time we hiked in December, right?
 
rates will rise when they have to rise and there is no other possibility
in otherwords, when the fed loses control of the bond market
Janet is just what we need, a doting mother who still allows the economy to live in her basement. They will move out soon enough, no reason to throw them out. If it gets too crowded she can always raise another .25, but in the back of her mind she must be realizing she can't accept anymore freeloaders.
 
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it goes deeper. At one time there were founding fathers. And you know how they were. Now there are founding mothers, and you know how they are. The world is changing for no other reason than the demographics male/female are changing.

For instance, in a world where women are the majority, they may be more concerned about the death of young men in war rather than what it is they are fighting about.

So all the facts of capitalism and free markets are still absoulutely true, but how to use those facts to our advantage is changing simply due to people deciding what they want changing. And I can tell you as a grumpy old man, these kids of mine today don't want what I wanted. So the world is changing.

And judging the fed based on what we wanted may no longer be valid even though all the economic laws are unchanged for all time.
 
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ETcallhome said:
it goes deeper. At one time there were founding fathers. And you know how they were. Now there are founding mothers, and you know how they are. The world is changing for no other reason than the demographics male/female are changing.

For instance, in a world where women are the majority, they may be more concerned about the death of young men in war rather than what it is they are fighting about.

So all the facts of capitalism and free markets are still absoulutely true, but how to use those facts to our advantage is changing simply due to people deciding what they want changing. And I can tell you as a grumpy old man, these kids of mine today don't want what I wanted. So the world is changing.

And judging the fed based on what we wanted may no longer be valid even though all the economic laws are unchanged for all time.
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what we know about free markets??? we dont' live in a free market.. we live in a completely controlled soon to be wildly out of control market.. boom bust cycles exaggerated by fed policy will be how its written down in the longer run.. the Fed controlling interest rates to this degree has now caused a completely bad signal and malinvestment
 
cdcaveman said:
what we know about free markets??? we dont' live in a free market.. we live in a completely controlled soon to be wildly out of control market.. boom bust cycles exaggerated by fed policy will be how its written down in the longer run.. the Fed controlling interest rates to this degree has now caused a completely bad signal and malinvestment
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ha,ha, How do you domesticate a market? A market is always free. If it wasn't free it wouldn't be a market.
 
coercive government is how the market isn't free... The government goes from being small and passive to being large influential and coercive in nature.. but yes in some way the market in the longer run will have a say in the speculations of the government
 
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