Countertrend Rallies

K

KGTrader4

I'm still around, haven't given up on the idea of learning to trade. Just haven't been dong much lately, except sit and think and read. Not trade. One of the things i've been thinking about lately.....

We will, i guess have at least a couple of rip your face off rallies before this bear market is over. But they will be countertrend ralleis that wont last. And they will suck in a lot of people.
I have a tough time sitting in 75% cash when this is happening. How do you guys avoid getting sucked in. What do you look for. (i realize everyone has a different "system" and some have no system)
 
Wrll if you think about investing or swing trading the way to wait for a trend reversal is to average in when you see the time coming. The secret sauce is when to start, how much to risk, when to accept a loss.
 
KGTrader4 said:
I'm still around, haven't given up on the idea of learning to trade. Just haven't been dong much lately, except sit and think and read. Not trade. One of the things i've been thinking about lately.....

We will, i guess have at least a couple of rip your face off rallies before this bear market is over. But they will be countertrend ralleis that wont last. And they will suck in a lot of people.
I have a tough time sitting in 75% cash when this is happening. How do you guys avoid getting sucked in. What do you look for. (i realize everyone has a different "system" and some have no system)
More...

If you want to try to capture part of counter trend rallies, you need to learn technical analysis... "Price TA". You can then know when there is a "buy set up" and when their is a technical sell. Price TAs are exactly the same in all markets... bull, bear, countertrend, commodities, currencies... all of them. The difference is in how often ones occur and how long they last. You have to play that part "by ear".
 
Maybe. Or maybe not:-

Market Prone to Late June Weakness

JEFFHIRSCH Jun 17, 2022 at 1:24 PM

Market Prone to Late June Weakness
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June is not a great month for the market in general. It’s even weaker in midterm years. But the week after June Triple Witching is horrendous. Down Triple Witching Weeks also tend to trigger more weakness the week after.

But with S&P 500 down 10 of the last 11 weeks and down 11.3% to date, which would be the second worst June ever behind 1930, perhaps some of the usual end-of-Q2 carnage has been pulled forward.

Any perceived improvement inflation, Russia/Ukraine war or supply chains would be welcomed by the market. With the bear on the loose caution and patience remain the best course of action. Happy Father’s Day to all the dads! Hit ‘em Straight!

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KGTrader4 said:
I have a serious illness. It’s a bitch and it’s called FOMO. I recognize it and I’m just trying to guard against it.
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the cure is to know if you don't fail you will be around long enough to catch a huge rally from start to end at some point
 
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