Countdown to The End of The World

E

Exchanges

OK, maybe not the end of the whole world but...

Iran is now firing ballistic missles (warnings?).

News quote: TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's military said Friday it successfully test-fired a missile not detectable by radar that can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously, a development that raised concerns in the United States and Israel.

The United States is gonna test drop its newest 700-ton "bunker buster" bomb in Nevada: You can bet they got a pocket full of 'em.

Oil is heading back to (and thru?) $70bbl. Is the market discounting it to $100+?

It's being speculated by currency traders (including me) that there's gonna be a currency storm triggered by the first (real) shots fired in Iran to force it to comply with U.N. nuclear disarmament demands.

With the USA in its full glory backing any U.N. measures, aggressively.

Bush wouldn't hesitate to start another war in the Middle East.

In his mind, the only way to protect Americans is to "eliminate the threat," when dealing with Iran, is to wipe out Iran's military.

The war drums are beating louder now than I can ever remember. The market is as jittery as a cat in the middle of a pack of Dobermanns.

Main problem with this whole scenario is the USA engaging three Middle East (and, gasp MUSLIM) nations at once - that exponentially increases potential for major global crisis.

Not just like Bush's fighting two wars with "terrorist nations" - this will be 3 complete nations (what's worse is that they are ALL Islamic-based) in the Middle East engaged all at once by the United States.

Nothing like this has ever happened before (read the Middle East factor). It's an aggressive (hostile?) stance to try to wipe out Islamic extremists.

Maybe not the end of everyone's world, but, a fallout and/or massive upset with currencies in the forex will, I think, reek havoc with various nations' economies: The likes of which the world has never seen: This includes the USA economy.

Because I trade the USD against the euro and yen, I've had to re-fortify my currency trading system to deal with the coming storm. It has teeth. Long teeth. :D

The only FX traders who are gonna make it through this upheaval are ones who super-fortify their trading systems, putting the emphasis on... well, better keep that to myself - hey, I need the liquidity providers! :D (This is serious, guys. Don't say Uncle X didn't warn ya. ;))

Thoughts/opposing views/any views?

x

<img src=http://www.anchorchainkennels.com/index1_files/MAIN_files/pic2.jpg>
what my new FX trading system looks like - please, take the other side.
 
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Exchanges: OK, maybe not the end of the whole world but...

Iran is now firing ballistic missles (warnings?).

News quote: TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's military said Friday it successfully test-fired a missile not detectable by radar that can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously, a development that raised concerns in the United States and Israel.


*****

April 2, 2006

SouthAmerica: The Iranians are just testing their new weapons.


*****


Exchanges: Oil is heading back to (and thru?) $70 bbl. Is the market discounting it to $100+?

It's being speculated by currency traders (including me) that there's gonna be a currency storm triggered by the first (real) shots fired in Iran to force it to comply with U.N. nuclear disarmament demands.


*****


SouthAmerica: It is possible that Oil could very well go to over $ 150 bbl overnight if the United States does something stupid regarding Iran. (That is a scenario which could happen since the US government is being run today by a bunch of “Jackasses” including Bush, Cheney and company….)

I put myself in place of the people who are running the Iranian government today – What I would do if I was in their shoes and the United States or Israel attacked any of the nuclear facilities inside Iran. - I would mine the entire Strait of Hormuz with explosives and also I would sink a few ships to block the shipping lanes and I would not allow any oil from flowing from that part of the world.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, strategically important stretch of ocean between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian Gulf in the southwest. On the north coast is Iran (Persia) and on the south coast is the United Arab Emirates and an exclave of Oman.

The strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide, having two 1 mile wide channels for marine traffic separated by a 2 mile wide buffer zone, and is the only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum exporting Persian Gulf States.

And that would be just the beginning….


*****


SouthAmerica: The other possible event that I would be worrying if I was an oil trader is the possibility of a major terrorist attack in the oil terminals in Saudi Arabia. We know that the terrorists are able to fly a major airliner full with explosives right into the major oil terminals in Saudi Arabia – not much different than the attack that they organized against the US on 9/11.

The Saudi oil terminals are probably more vulnerable to a terrorist attack than most people realized.


*****


Exchanges: Bush wouldn't hesitate to start another war in the Middle East.

In his mind, the only way to protect Americans is to "eliminate the threat," when dealing with Iran, is to wipe out Iran's military.


******


SouthAmerica: I would not worry about that. The US does not have a clue about what is going on inside Iraq and Afghanistan – In Iraq they are having a hard time fighting a guerrilla style of war against a bunch of insurgents armed with weapons vintage WW II.

Both Iraq and Afghanistan are engulfed in a civil war – The bottom line is: today they are so incompetent and stupid that they might even bring Iran also into the conflict – and in no time the entire Middle East would be involved in a major war with disastrous consequences to the entire world.

But we can’t under estimate the stupidity of Bush and his pals since there is no limit to their incompetence.


******


Exchange: Because I trade the USD against the euro and yen, I've had to re-fortify my currency trading system to deal with the coming storm.


******


SouthAmerica: If you have been reading my postings then you know that I have been predicting that the Fed Funds rate would reach 5 percent by May/June 2006.

When the Fed Funds reach the 5 percent level we need to take a hard look on many things before we know what will happen to the fed Funds rate next.

American companies will be able to repatriate their foreign earnings at an special tax rate until October 2006 when that tax break expires – I have no way of knowing how much earnings are going to be repatriated by that deadline. That is one reason to push the value of the dollar up against the euro – otherwise the US dollar probably would the losing its value against the euro.

I don’t know how many countries started switching their buying of oil – having the transactions priced in euros instead of US dollars.

I don’t know when the stamped out of the US dollar will start – but there many things that can trigger the spark, and that can turn very fast into a major international monetary crisis – something not seen for a long time.


*****


SouthAmerica: If you have been reading my posts then you know that I predicted that the Fed Funds rate would reach 5 percent and the price of gold would reach $ 600 per oz.

I also predicted the decline of the US dollar and that can happen before the end of the year.

But right now there is too much risk in the market, and if I was a trader I would stay in the sidelines until I could see thinks a little clear.

Things to keep a close watch:

1) US/Iran crisis – which could escalate very quickly and get out of control.
2) A terrorist attack on Saudi oil terminals.
3) The assassination or overthrow of the current dictator of Pakistan – there is a real possibility that Al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Ladden could get control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
4) Another major terrorist attack on US soil.


Conclusion: This is not a good time to take risks – the best startegy right now is to stay in the sidelines until better opportunities are available for investments.


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i just want to know what usa is going to do when they cant get any more oil?

iran wont sell em any.

its going to take 10 years to get any meaningful supplies out of iraq

saudi arabia is almost dry.

large oil producers in s. america are saying no more oil to usa - wed rather give it to china.


good bye usa. nice knowing you when you were a nice country and before you voted that twat bush in again.

you got to admit it - you brought it on yourselves.

karma!

usa = my name is earl

youd better start writing that list - its gunna be a long one.
 
It's the end of the world! Better give all your stuff away and run up into the mountains. Do it now - do it today, before everybody else figures it out too!
 
Run for the mountains? No, better move to another country.

Do what the worlds elite is doing. Buying real estate and building fortresses in South American forests and mountains. When everyone starts getting mandatory microchip implants, it will be too late.
 
Quote from FredBloggs:

i just want to know what usa is going to do when they cant get any more oil?
More...

lIke we never could figure out what to do before. LOL.
 
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