Could there be a insurance company default because of the Coronavirus?

[Overnight]

@morganist Aren't you an economist? You have no idea what a global pandemic's repercussions are? And of all places to ask, you ask on ET.

Talk about the blind leading the blind.

The stuff we are talking about is way below his pay grade, so he doesn't understand the little people. His economic theories have been adopted by governments around the world, remember? He is WAAAYY above this level of understanding.

He's simply too smart to understand the plight of the common folks.

In fact, if memory serves, his economic theories somehow helped the UK navigate BREXIT, or so he said. He had actual contact with the British government on it, and he said they used his theories to help with trade negotiations or somesuch.

 

[JSOP]

I was just thinking that if the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdown continues it could cause a problem for insurance companies with the payouts they will have to make. I have had a look at the news articles on similar topics but they seem to surround the consequence of the low return the low interest rates and bond yields are producing rather than the payout rate, although the low return problem would be another reason why insurance companies might default.

Do any of you have any thoughts on the issue or the risk of a large scale default in the insurance industry if the lockdown continues? Life insurance policies will be heavily claimed due to the death rate, then there are all of the other claims from loss of earnings and the cost of being infected even if the person makes a recovery. Do any of you have a contingency plan if this happens? If so what would you do if the insurance market crashed and what do you think the impact would be on the stock market?

No because all the insurance companies have to do is change their criteria for compensation and they can walk away without paying a cent. All they have to do is claim this pandemic as "Act of God" and that's it. They won't have to pay a cent because most insurance policies exclude "Act of God". You watch. I am sure insurance companies will pull this one on their clients aka victims.

 

[JSOP]

Yet, I see a nightmare in the near future when people try to switch insurance or get new insurance for the first time and they've been Covid-19 positive but didn't require any hospitalization because they had very little / no symptoms.

Simply, insurance companies will then deny coverage via saying Covid-19 will then be consider a "pre-existing medical condition".

wrbtrader

Another reason why we should've taken this pandemic more seriously earlier and have all the health measures in place earlier and started making people wear masks right from the start instead of listening to that braindead WHO idiot's bullcrap of "Corona virus is very very low risk" and "Masks are not effective in protecting against the virus".

 

[morganist]

@morganist Aren't you an economist? You have no idea what a global pandemic's repercussions are? And of all places to ask, you ask on ET.

Talk about the blind leading the blind.

I have an idea of what would happen. I was asking the question to start a debate about what other people think would happen. My opinion is that it could at the very least lead to a reduction in the profit margins of insurance companies that would cause a fall in the value of the stock market. My other concern is that it could lead to defaults of insurance companies if the stock market or the economy is impacted too heavily because it could lead to lower returns or defaults of investments the insurance companies have made to cover future claims. I put forward two risks, the risk of a higher claim rate and the risk of insurance company investment loss as a result of a weakened stock market or economy. What is your position on the issue?

 

[morganist]

@morganist Aren't you an economist? You have no idea what a global pandemic's repercussions are? And of all places to ask, you ask on ET.

Talk about the blind leading the blind.

Your response makes me think you only read the title because I gave a two paragraph introduction to the thread, which put forward my opinion of the possible consequences of the Coronavirus on the insurance industry. The intention was not to merely ask what would happen, but to put my position forward and ask other people what they thought would happen.

 

[tsznecki]

The stuff we are talking about is way below his pay grade, so he doesn't understand the little people. His economic theories have been adopted by governments around the world, remember? He is WAAAYY above this level of understanding.

He's simply too smart to understand the plight of the common folks.

In fact, if memory serves, his economic theories somehow helped the UK navigate BREXIT, or so he said. He had actual contact with the British government on it, and he said they used his theories to help with trade negotiations or somesuch.

You are selling yourself short. I didn't take you for a self hater.

 

[tsznecki]

@morganist My position is: it won't matter. Insurers may be weaker in the short run, broader market won't care. Stop fixating on a repeat of '08 this is not it. Better analogue is '06 with Katrina.

My position on you asking the wrong audience stands. Much better places to ask your question than on ET.

 

[bone]

If you tried charting the top property/casualty insurers the answer is obvious. BRK.A looks fine, AIG took a big hit in February but it's recovering, MET took a big hit in February but it has gained a good portion of it back, ING has come off quite a bit since 2018 - took a big hit in February and has stabilized since, ALL took a hit in February but has gained quite a bit back.

Healthcare stocks actually gained. UNH, HUM have all rallied throughout and continue.

I was just thinking that if the Coronavirus outbreak and lockdown continues it could cause a problem for insurance companies with the payouts they will have to make. I have had a look at the news articles on similar topics but they seem to surround the consequence of the low return the low interest rates and bond yields are producing rather than the payout rate, although the low return problem would be another reason why insurance companies might default.

Do any of you have any thoughts on the issue or the risk of a large scale default in the insurance industry if the lockdown continues? Life insurance policies will be heavily claimed due to the death rate, then there are all of the other claims from loss of earnings and the cost of being infected even if the person makes a recovery. Do any of you have a contingency plan if this happens? If so what would you do if the insurance market crashed and what do you think the impact would be on the stock market?

 

[morganist]

The stuff we are talking about is way below his pay grade, so he doesn't understand the little people. His economic theories have been adopted by governments around the world, remember? He is WAAAYY above this level of understanding.

He's simply too smart to understand the plight of the common folks.

In fact, if memory serves, his economic theories somehow helped the UK navigate BREXIT, or so he said. He had actual contact with the British government on it, and he said they used his theories to help with trade negotiations or somesuch.

My work was specifically started to help people with the problems they have. The original work was an alternative mechanism to control inflation and economic growth using pension saving instead of the interest rate mechanism. This was developed to prevent the interest rate from rocketing too high, which it did in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The high interest rates that were increased to reduce inflation resulted in business failure and mass house repossessions.

The use of pension saving rate increases to reduce inflation in the United Kingdom after the financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 prevented inflation from getting too high and reduced the cost of paying off the outstanding government debt by keeping the interest rates low throughout the period of high public sector borrowing. In 2012 deflation became a problem so the pension saving process was optimised and enabled a decade of sustained economic growth at the 2% target rate.

My recent work has been to develop new techniques to stimulate economic growth instead of reducing government spending or falling into recession. I have recently published a paper entitled 'The Missed Aspect Of Macroeconomics - Pension Fund Easing', which offers a new method of increasing economic growth through the superior placement of pension investment funds to increase the velocity of transactions. The work was meant with the best of intentions to make the everyday persons' life easier.

 

[morganist]

If you tried charting the top property/casualty insurers the answer is obvious. BRK.A looks fine, AIG took a big hit in February but it's recovering, MET took a big hit in February but it has gained a good portion of it back, ING has come off quite a bit since 2018 - took a big hit in February and has stabilized since, ALL took a hit in February but has gained quite a bit back.

Healthcare stocks actually gained. UNH, HUM have all rallied throughout and continue.

Great, but what if there is a second wave or a third wave?

Someone else pointed out that just having the virus at one point could increase their premiums for health insurance in the future. Is this likely? Or is it just like the flu, you can have it and then you get over it in a week or two?