I mean as a Trader, I am looking to stretch it out before I blast PUTs. Logically once the liquidity providers smell something too strong, the premiums on buying puts will be very high or non existent. I do not care about if UK will be good in 10 years or not, I just need my decision based on the next few months? And it seems only negative can come out of that whole ordeal, a Brexit will be the start of a worldwide recession, no way around it. The only other possibility would be delaying the inevitable through a 2nd referendum and maybe another catalyst will come along in mid or end 2019 to start it. It is your strategy and your trades, but I strongly suggest not waiting until mid or end 2019 to place your PUTs, premiums will be very high by then on almost anything
The way that everybody is talking it's as if all of sudden UK is going to become a 3rd world country as soon as it leaves EU. LOL Just a minute ago when it's still in EU, it's still paying into EU to prop up like 20+ of its member countries but all of sudden once it's out of EU, it's going to become so poor that it's going to need bailout? LOL People, it's still Great Britain!!! Like I said it's going to be impacted a bit by the Brexit but it's not going to be OMG!! Armageddon end of the world for Britain. Of course if you bought a bunch of puts then yeah you want to do this doomsday pumping a bit so everybody goes out and buy puts to make them go higher
but in reality if everybody is prepared for what's going to come in March, everybody will be prepared and there is not going to be this panic chaos.But even If everybody panics and shorts the GBP that's gonna be even better, GBP is going to be so cheap that it's going to give UK's exports such a boost that UK might end up doing better than when it was in EU. And in actuality, UK is actually a net importer which means it imports from more than it exports to guess who? Yes EU!! So a cheap GBP is going to discourage UK from importing from EU and since EU exports more to UK than importing from it, guess who will actually lose when UK all of sudden exits from EU with no deal? LOL And since UK doesn't export that much so it won't be facing that much tariffs from other countries and yet it's going to be able to set up tariffs against other countries for imports. And experts are already predicting that with a no-deal, Brexit is actually going to benefit local UK businesses who would be able to enjoy a revenue boost due to lack of competition. So if I were to trade the UK market, I would long in UK local businesses shares because their shares will be going up quite nicely after Brexit.
I know Britain will be fine, in the end just print more money right, couple of keyboard strokes and voila, billions in QE!
No the solution is NOT to print more money because all that does is just to result in hyperinflation like what happened to Germany after WWI and what's happening now in Venezeula. No, the key for UK to come out on top from this Brexit is do like what Japan did after WWII and what China did and still does right now, increase productivity, to work your a$$ off!! This is what Britain did in the Industrial Revolution with the advent of steam-powered machines and that's what put Britain on top of the world and this is what Britain would have to do again this time. That's one route Britain can go and that's not the only route Britain can go.
Alternatively Britain can choose to go the other route of actually relaxing to grow domestic economy with no printing of money, no working themselves to death... With all the EU'ers gone and border control in place, all the Russians gone, Britain's population would actually go down a bit so Britain actually won't need to produce that much especially that it's not exporting that much so it would just need to produce just enough to feed its own population and that's it. That would put the pressure off constantly trying to find resources and cost of living would actually go down provided BoE doesn't do the stupid thing of printing money. Britain won't be able to become world superpower or world's factory anyway, so why put the pressure on itself to compete to keep up with the Jonses? Just produce enough to develop its domestic economy, do some R&D about next gen. of technology and pay down some debt with the extra money and grow its economy gradually with the new technology, meanwhile maintain trade relations with the rest of non-EU countries and go from there. Serious, life without EU would really be much better I find.
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