Could profitable trading cease to exist?

[ras72]

For those of you who derive most of your income from trading [??], do you worry that something could change ...?
... if you work hard consistently to stay on top ... will there always be a way to live off trading income?

First off, the concept of profitable financial trading for short term gains is meaningless without the specification of a profitability level and a time window over which it is maintained.

Further, a trading performance is the result of skill and transitory conditions. “Conditions” here is taken to include all elements that characterize price dynamics.

Finally, it needs to be recognized that with so many participants some will be successful by random chance, independently of their method.

From a larger perspective all successful trading is based on luck. An individual, on the other hand, would more readily, and to a larger extent, attribute a successful performance run to his skills. He would include recognizing conditions as part of those skills. He should be concerned about performance sustainability but will tend to underestimate the issue. Probably one needs to think that way, and needs to simplify, and overestimate himself in order to participate in the first place.

I think it is impossible, in reality, to objectively evaluate trading performance sustainability, that it is impossible to separate skill from random components, and that this is true for the interested party and even more so for an observer.

So, you are going to get enthusiastically positive responses to your question from traders and yet all that they will say will be unprovable and meaningless.

ras 72

 

[ras72]

My previous post was to answer the question in your post.

The answer to the different question in your thread title, “Could profitable trading cease to exist?” I believe to be negative even when considered beyond anything that could be justified by random luck.

ras72

 

[Sergio77]

There are infinite ways to mix indicators so trading will not die but many trading systems will and many have already.

 

[JTrades]

Of course I'm worried, you'd be "stupid" not to.
Note that you said "profitable trading". Trading won't disappear completely but it might disappear for me and others in this thread.

I know worriers and it's always futile; their worst fears rarely transpire. I agree with the sentiment of what you're saying: things will change, so be prepared. But you could flip "you'd be stupid not to worry" to "you'd be stupid to worry", and I don't mean that facetiously. This applies beyond trading, and maybe getting into the realms of spirituality, but avoid worrying about what might happen. Plan for change, make sound decisions, take action. That's all we can do. For us it means making adaptation to change our business. That 1 cent scalp method or that intraday breakdown setup stops working, so onto the new thing that is working this month/year/decade.

As for the markets, it's hard to imagine a day (in the next 50 years) when it will be impossible to make money trading via the financial industry. Legislation is possibly the biggest threat(?), but there'll be new markets, exchanges, financial products (options, CFDs, spread betting, cryptocurrencies, ...). Also, financial instruments, whether futures or shares are there to serve a real world purpose. Companies will always want investment, commodity producers will always want to hedge against future uncertainty and competing brokers/exchanges (new and old) will want business.

... he says... as he gets deeper into this weird trading thing.

 

[Grandluxe]

I know worriers and it's always futile; their worst fears rarely transpire. I agree with the sentiment of what you're saying: things will change, so be prepared. But you could flip "you'd be stupid not to worry" to "you'd be stupid to worry", and I don't mean that facetiously. This applies beyond trading, and maybe getting into the realms of spirituality, but avoid worrying about what might happen. Plan for change, make sound decisions, take action. That's all we can do. For us it means making adaptation to change our business. That 1 cent scalp method or that intraday breakdown setup stops working, so onto the new thing that is working this month/year/decade.

As for the markets, it's hard to imagine a day (in the next 50 years) when it will be impossible to make money trading via the financial industry. Legislation is possibly the biggest threat(?), but there'll be new markets, exchanges, financial products (options, CFDs, spread betting, cryptocurrencies, ...). Also, financial instruments, whether futures or shares are there to serve a real world purpose. Companies will always want investment, commodity producers will always want to hedge against future uncertainty and competing brokers/exchanges (new and old) will want business.

... he says... as he gets deeper into this weird trading thing.

You are still young and don't understand how this business operates.

But you will learn.

 

[Aileron]

It never ceases to amaze me how many people will spend so much of their lives just worrying about what might happen, but has never happened yet, and looks unlikely to happen.

F E A R
​

And to want to spend so much of their time in anxiety of things that never happen.

It's almost exhausting to even watch people do this to themselves.

 

[dbphoenix]

You are still young and don't understand how this business operates.

But you will [might?] learn.

It never ceases to amaze me how many people will spend so much of their lives just worrying about what might happen, but has never happened yet, and looks unlikely to happen.

F E A R
​

And to want to spend so much of their time in anxiety of things that never happen.

It's almost exhausting to even watch people do this to themselves.

The latter is pretty much a consequence of the former. And together they more or less wrap it up.

 

[kut2k2]

It never ceases to amaze me how many people will spend so much of their lives just worrying about what might happen, but has never happened yet, and looks unlikely to happen.

F E A R
​

And to want to spend so much of their time in anxiety of things that never happen.

It's almost exhausting to even watch people do this to themselves.

+10

Fear is the killer of will, and without will, there is no triumph.

This place is crawling with nervous nellies who want to make a mint without ever experiencing even a minor drawdown or in some cases even a single losing trade ("Please tell me how to set the perfect stop! PLEEEZ!"). It's pretty sad.

 

[JTrades]

You are still young and don't understand how this business operates. But you will learn.

Can't disagree there - finding out new things every day. Old assumptions turned out to be false, newer perspectives replacing the old, but no idea how far along the learning curve.

But you will [might?] learn.

And how does one know he/she has learnt? Positive, consistent P&L, or is it more than that?

 

[bashatrader]

+10

Fear is the killer of will, and without will, there is no triumph.

This place is crawling with nervous nellies who want to make a mint without ever experiencing even a minor drawdown or in some cases even a single losing trade ("Please tell me how to set the perfect stop! PLEEEZ!"). It's pretty sad.

+

Schools teach risk aversion.