There's a good reason why it's called "Climbing the wall of worry."
Any profession that's subject to both market forces and regulatory issues is open to potential problems at any time.
Could profitable trading cease to exist?
- Thread starter rtr1129
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There's a good reason why it's called "Climbing the wall of worry."
Any profession that's subject to both market forces and regulatory issues is open to potential problems at any time.
There are a lot of good points there.
There are scores and scores of methods. Firm asked me once how many methods I had, and I sorta chuckled. I mean ... phew, more than I can count. But at certain times? They just won't make money. Like ya said, at times, for years on end. The absolute worst thing I could do, would be to try to push a method that just won't work in the current environment.
I'm making most of my money at the moment in valuations on equities, and all-weathers. Last year? Barely squeaked out 532 BPS on valuations, and 300 BPS on all-weathers. This year? They're both on fire.
Best bet is to know a lot of methods, and know when each work best.
Oh, and to pray that you've got them running when it's time for them to run.
You have every right to have the concerns you do.
Also consider switching to a better broker.
Only imcomplete methods work on and off. Complete methods work all the time.
One major principle in actual trading is the consideration of price change. Price change is required for making money.
Your broker does not trade. He just affords you the trading opportunity for a consideration. He does not contribute to your perfomance to any extent.
Someday you may think about the system of operation of the market. In a perfect fully efficient market, there will always be price change. Therefore, those with complete systems of how the market works will always enjoy taking profit segments in harmony with the market.
One of the difficult things most potential traders face is not knowing what they do not know. There is a great deal that you do not know and that is okay for the present.
Most people have a lot of ignorance to overcome. Your question comes from ignorance.
That's also a good point, the international financial markets (London, Paris, Zurich, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Sydney, Hong-Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Brazil, Seoul, etc..) also offer plenty of trading opportunities.
I used to swing trade the very liquid DAX and CAC40 (German and French indices) a few years ago.
Those interested could read "Trading the International Futures Markets" for example, by Jake and Jacob Bernstein.
ROFLOL ...
You don't know who I am I take it ...
Hehehe ... it is sorta cute in a way ...
Wweally?
ROFLOL Pwease tell me mohr!! You mean ... the price has to CHANGE?!?! What a concept!
LOL
Sigh, why not, I'll try to help out.
This is so patently false ... it sounds like something an intern would say.
Market goes sideways, your directional methods don't work, and you go delta neutral, or correlation strategies. Market goes directional, and delta neutral methods become much less effective. And unless you're very effective delta neutral trader (I know a few actually) ... you lose money.
Just ask anyone trying to play the indices this year, as they did last year with the same directional methods, or played non-directional on the indices last year.
Hello Jack, I certainly have limited experience, so forgive my ignorance, but how can this be? Say you are about to enter into a trade, long a stock. Right before you buy, a big player dumps a large number of shares, the stock price will tank. If the big player would have been in a car wreck today, maybe he doesn't dump his shares until a few days later. So, whether the stock goes up or down is, at least some of the time, subject to random events that no one other than god could predict. How can any system always work?
Because it's not true.
Markets will act differently, at different times. Thus, we can use either a "directional" method. This is "buy low / sell high" "sell high / buy low" or a non-directional method, or what we refer to as "delta neutral".
So ... in 2014 in the Spoos (SPX) it would have been a HORRIBLE time to play a non-directional method higher and higher. A clear trend kept moving. And then KEPT moving. Unfortunately, I was trying some non-directional methods during that time, and I came out of 2014 with only something like 3% in my book overall. Some pieces did good (5.32% in valuation buy and holds) than others. Trading, I only did 2.305%, which is a bad year for me. Overall, I did about 3%. Good risk-adjustment (meaning, my returns weren't jumping all over the place). But it just wasn't a great year, though profitable. Using the wrong methods, at the wrong time.
Now this year in the SPX? GREAT time to be playing non-directional strategies. Because there is no clear trend, and the market has been pretty much sideways. Thus we would say: "Great year to be delta neutral"
A market's personality can change on a dime, and different methods will do better at different times, than others.
stocks rarely tank because a big player sells.
This going to sound crazy but for the first time Jack's post made perfect sense. I could understand each sentence. The only difference is I had 4 beers. (I don't drink a lot)
I think I am on to something, gotta make a Costco run and then re-read some of JH's posts.