Could it be THIS easy to beat the market?

[panzerman]

The market is not super hard to trade. Month to date for me is about 60K. The hard part is:

1. Picking a strategy
2. Sticking to it
3. Trading it when it works
4. Not trading it when it doesn't work

But everyone has to go through this "I figured out this number thing that all the other smart people did not" phase.

Of course when a strategy starts working and when it stops working is randomly distributed in time. However, since even the higher moments of the distribution are stocastic, using a probabilistic model is hardly a path to trading success (more paramteres to get wrong.)

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Of course when a strategy starts working and when it stops working is randomly distributed in time. However, since even the higher moments of the distribution are stocastic, using a probabilistic model is hardly a path to trading success (more paramteres to get wrong.)

There you go, trying to sound smart.

 

[themickey]

There you go, trying to sound smart.

It's a young guys thing, like trying to grow whiskers as a teenager,

 

[murray t turtle]

Since you're always buying high and selling low its a loser.

%%
Sure could work out that way;
but a good UPtrend /buy/ high works well., Works Very Well\surely ''not all the time'' unless you find an uptrend all the time\LOL.
BUY high can work well in inverse ETfs\maybe not so much \because of all the spikes \ sharp rallies.................................................................................... So i buy inverse ETFs on pullbacks + a few/ buy high.
''EXCACT optimum'' as mr Soyunpe noted is not known , that would be a prediction.

 

[timdug]

eh what?

 

[morganpbrown]

Take any market. Say you are long in the market, 100% of your portfolio (just for this simple example, it could be any number really). When the market goes up by 1%, your investment in the market goes up by 1%. Conversely, when the market goes down by 1%, your investment in the market goes down by 1%.

But could that relationship really be the exact optimal one? Maybe if the market goes up by 1% you should only increase your amount in by .9% (thus selling a bit). And maybe if the market goes down by 1% you should only decrease your amount in by .8625% (thus buying a bit). Or maybe something akin to the reverse of that is best.

That sort of thing. I bet there is some optimum strategy. I intend to test this to find out.

See you on the rich side LOL.

Every bit of data mining that ive done - when you train the model with the past year of data - points to a reflexive rally off any dip. Shocker!

I bet that will change if it hasnt already

 

[Jdesey]

my short answer... no it is not easy to beat the market. Many very skilled and experienced traders have tried. But that does not mean we do not try. I have had times when I beat the snot out of the market returns, but have failed to do so for an extended period.

 

[SunTrader]

There is no optimal .... other than having a JayPow money printing machine on hand.

 

[timdug]

3 pages and it still doesn't make sense.....