Cotton

My view is short term bearish. Got stopped the day before yesterday. Will not open a position for now. Actually I am wondering if I should go short now then cover and reverse around 45. I think that is the trade, even though it goes against your seasonality frame. So based on that info I will sit on the sidelines and watch the show for now.

Expect it to bottom at 45. Monthly RSI is way too weak.

Good luck. :)


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Hey, I recovered a bit on that Cotton trade yesterday. What do you think? Just short covering? I am staying long right now as a seasonal play with just the one lot.
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I've been wrong on this one. Monday, I will look carefully at getting out by the end of the day unless there is a huge bounce. I can get in later if I want to.
 
Reasonable analysis, optionpro.

Based on the price bar behaviour exclusively, ( given the last three weeks or so) i reckon the odds of a gap up monday/rebound during the week are actually pretty good .
 
thanks acronym. I agree with you, which is the reason why I am watching the show from the sidelines..

:)


Quote from acronym:

Reasonable analysis, optionpro.

Based on the price bar behaviour exclusively, ( given the last three weeks or so) i reckon the odds of a gap up monday/rebound during the week are actually pretty good .
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Exited Long Dec Cotton at .4920 for 3 cent loss ($1500). I'll look to get back in at a later date with a larger position.

Mistake made here was not coordinating seasonality with chart analysis.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Exited Long Dec Cotton at .4920 for 3 cent loss ($1500). I'll look to get back in at a later date with a larger position.

Mistake made here was not coordinating seasonality with chart analysis.
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At the moment, this looks like a good decision. Dec Cotton closed today at .4835. I am still watching closely for a reentry on a long. I need to see some strength and a bottoming pattern. I was fooled earlier on this one.( Actually, I was just too eager).
 
Hi b1s2.

Would you say the march contract is now ready ?


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

At the moment, this looks like a good decision. Dec Cotton closed today at .4835. I am still watching closely for a reentry on a long. I need to see some strength and a bottoming pattern. I was fooled earlier on this one.( Actually, I was just too eager).
More...
 
I don't like it retesting the low. I took a .50 loss on the big blowout day a few days back so I may just be overly pessimistic.

The cash market isn't doing much, and seasonally, not much happens with CT for a few months.

But that's just one opinion...
 
I've gone long March cotton today at .5355. I'm a bit late but it looks like it has at least some potential for an extended move.
 
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