Cost of war, what's the real cost of war. Funnest 2 min vid.

Quote from jprad:

Wasn't the '08 speculative bubble in crude enough of a price shock?

And, what's happened since? The same thing that happened after the first oil shortage of '72, a push towards higher fuel economy.

When you mentioned that the US consumes 25% of the world's oil you were correct, but that doesn't tell enough of the story. The more important number is the 60% of that total oil consumption is due to personal transportation.

Higher oil prices will push people to more economical vehicles, less overall driving (or at least fewer, more intelligently planned trips) and increased car pool and/or mass transportation usage.

I seriously doubt that the US invaded Iraq for any altruistic idea of staving off an oil shock to the world's economy.

If anything, it was a strategic move since higher oil prices actually helps the US more than hurts it. Personal gasoline consumption indicates there's more elasticity to US oil consumption than is the case in a predominantly export based economy that has low personal oil consumption.

It had nothing to do with altruism - far from it. The US needs cheap oil period, because we import so much which contributes to our account deficit. And being the world's largest economy with the most consumption by far, we have the most skin in the game.

Cheap oil is a tax cut - it releases billions in discretionary income -more so in the US, but the effects worldwide are positive as well. Sure, when oil is too cheap, our oil industry suffers. But you know what? Since the 1970s-1980s, sovereign oil producers have taken over the market. Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, etc... the famed "Seven Sisters/Rockefeller legacy companies now only account for a small percentage - 10-15 of world production.

Historically, when oil prices reach 4% of GDP - the US goes into recession.

Let's look at it another way: You live in a city and also have the largest business that also consumes a lot of water. Who will go out of their way to make sure the city water utility is efficient? You, the owner of a factory? Or the guy that owns a small restaurant? Of course, you will be the most involved, and the small business owners may kick in some money to help your efforts. You have the most at stake and the most resources to ensure low costs. And yes, there will be free riders, but what's the alternative?

Fuel economy helps. But the world is also very different now than it was in the 1970s. Remember the old National Geographic pictures showing China and so called "third world" images of people on mules, or hundreds of people on bicycles? Those days are disappearing. With Global Trade, more and more people will be buying cars. And however fuel efficient they are, if hundreds of millions of cars are bought in China and India, South America, and Africa over the next decade or so, then that fuel efficiency is means nothing - it merely slows the growth rate and minimally so.
 
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