Correction coming, or crash?

Real rates
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ChipShotTrader said:
I just realized that even though I cut off all financial media, I still kept an Economic Calendar. Somehow, and due to my college background (BS in Economics), I still wanted to believe in these economic numbers. The unemployment number on Friday was dismal, and the market rallied, then the inflation number this week was pretty bad as well, and the market sold off. I thought that these 2 numbers (combined) could signal a market top (the economist in me), but the market recovered. And I was actually long expecting a small bounce, which I sold for a small profit, because I was biased due to the above mentioned numbers. Once I saw that destriero was then long NQ, I knew I sold my ES quite early due to a bias, and NOT my strategy.

Needless to say, the Economic Calendar is now gone, permanently. For the first time, since 1998, I am trading solely based on price action (and experience). My college degree is now officially worthless, but I am here to make money, consistently.

This is definitely a new market environment. CL went negative in April 2020, the rise in the Dow during August 2020 had not been seen since 1984. The rise last month had not been seen since the 1950s! So even though I am highly experienced, I am witnessing markets not seeing during my trading lifetime. So I have to adapt, and just trade, and make the cash, which I like, a lot...
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Your negative bias is showing. The vast majority of economic news the last 2-3 months has been extremely positive. GDP up 6-10% has exceeded expectations. If you think the economic story is weak eventually you need confirmation of that and right now the economy is growing rapidly out of the depths of a Covid induced recession.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
Your negative bias is showing. The vast majority of economic news the last 2-3 months has been extremely positive. GDP up 6-10% has exceeded expectations. If you think the economic story is weak eventually you need confirmation of that and right now the economy is growing rapidly out of the depths of a Covid induced recession.
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Really? I was long this week, and trading for a bounce, which I unfortunately exited too early (with a profit). Weren't you the one grateful to be down just 1%, this week? Gotta be flexible...

I no longer pay attention to economic numbers, at all. It's no longer my concern.

I am just trading the ranges, because I am a trader. I don't have a negative bias, nor a positive one. I am just here to make money, consistently.

Have fun reading economic news!!!

Especially the money supply data. My bad, they "discontinued" releasing those figures...
 
ChipShotTrader said:
Really? I was long this week, and trading for a bounce, which I unfortunately exited too early (with a profit). Weren't you the one grateful to be down just 1%, this week? Gotta be flexible...

I no longer pay attention to economic numbers, at all. It's no longer my concern.

I am just trading the ranges, because I am a trader. I don't have a negative bias, nor a positive one. I am just here to make money, consistently.

Have fun reading economic news!!!

Especially the money supply data. My bad, they "discontinued" releasing those figures...
More...

When you post that a multi-year high got set and that an economic number was "dismal" that screams extreme negative bias.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
When you post that a multi-year high got set and that an economic number was "dismal" that screams extreme negative bias.
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That's what I thought, coming into Tuesday, but I saw a clear long opportunity, regardless of the economic numbers (I am a trader). That's the moment I realized that the Economic Calendar was making me biased. All I need is to follow my strategy; there is no need for economic numbers in my trading. Ever...

Think of Economic Numbers as the Oreo Cookies for this guy:

Once I spotted that, they are gone, like the Oreo cookies.

Once you have a consistently winning strategy, there is no need for economic numbers, or Oreo Cookies...

PS. Never be happy about a loss.

"Rollercoaster this week but pretty happy to be down 1% on the week"
 
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Anticipated commodity stock rally is on. Nat Gas crushed $3; stocks a little slow to react but they will. Gold/Silver broke recent highs and this time the stocks are responding. Oil at $66 can't be bad. Copper flat for now. I am in particular interested in Silver and Nat Gas, with a side interest on whether Copper will bottom out and join the move at some point.
 
KCalhoun said:
GDX up re gold
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Kinross up 6%, Endeavour Silver up 10%. I'm also liking CXB ( Calibre ), MAG Silver, New Gold, maybe Eldorado Gold today. I took a flyer a few weeks ago on junior silver play BCM ( was losing significant money on it but it's recovered 100%; potential break out candidate if it can rise above $2.06 ).

Nat Gas plays Birchcliff and Arc Resources curiously only up a touch on a really strong day for Nat Gas itself. I suspect interest will come. Junior Crew Energy has been stronger today.

I like Silver miners to be best profit opp from here and possibly a late day breakout in the Nat Gas stocks. Gold miners are a steadier less ambitious play rest of today. Okay now Oil is making a move; unclear if I should sell anything at this point to buy some MAG Silver.
 
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