Correction coming, or crash?

ChipShotTrader said:
I just realized that even though I cut off all financial media, I still kept an Economic Calendar. Somehow, and due to my college background (BS in Economics), I still wanted to believe in these economic numbers. The unemployment number on Friday was dismal, and the market rallied, then the inflation number this week was pretty bad as well, and the market sold off. I thought that these 2 numbers (combined) could signal a market top (the economist in me), but the market recovered. And I was actually long expecting a small bounce, which I sold for a small profit, because I was biased due to the above mentioned numbers. Once I saw that destriero was then long NQ, I knew I sold my ES quite early due to a bias, and NOT my strategy.

Needless to say, the Economic Calendar is now gone, permanently. For the first time, since 1998, I am trading solely based on price action (and experience). My college degree is now officially worthless, but I am here to make money, consistently.

This is definitely a new market environment. CL went negative in April 2020, the rise in the Dow during August 2020 had not been seen since 1984. The rise last month had not been seen since the 1950s! So even though I am highly experienced, I am witnessing markets not seeing during my trading lifetime. So I have to adapt, and just trade, and make the cash, which I like, a lot...
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Sounds like you're joining the ranks of the wallstreebets gang.... see, that wasn't so difficult.
 
KCalhoun said:
Whenever I try and call a top I'm usually wrong, so I won't do that....

Any thoughts on how to trade next market moves?

I still like steel copper lumber and other infrastructure plays, plus inverses if selling accelerates.

Booked gains on inverses today and am mostly cash.
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My thoughts (and positions) are short NDX, and NKD, long ZB. Furthermore, I'm dumping HG, and going long GC and SI. Maybe PL too. Probably a small stake. There's a moderate flight to safety currently going on. Which as I type it - is slapping me in the face with, I need to reverse my position on the YEN. I suspect it's going to get a bid.

On the ES? I actually have a long position in the making. 1-2 weeks in duration. max. After that? See you later. Year 2 of bull thrusts tend to be chop-city, for pretty obvious reasons- you can't buy forever. And here we are. Oil is a whole other thing right now. I'm about to take my profits there and count myself lucky to do so here. That too is increasingly looking like chop city for a while.

Cash is a position too.
 
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Overnight said:
That seems counter-productive. If you are short NDX, you'd also want to be short ZB. No?
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No. Long treasury as a risk-off move (read-treasuries to outperform stocks. yield seeking assets being preferred. It's no coincidence XLP has caught a bid). Short NDX as a risk-off move. Long Gold and Silver as a risk-off move. Long Yen as a risk-off move. I'm sure you can see the theme.

These are just summer trades though. This is all consolidating a years worth of historic gains. My positioning is to digest those gains. QQQ 280 is my target. Then enjoy the remainder of this secular bull market.
 
CopperOverGold said:
No. Long treasury as a risk-off move (read-treasuries to outperform stocks. yield seeking assets being preferred...
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There's a mantra I have been trying to repeat in my head...

Yields go up, price goes down. Yields go up, price goes down. Thanks Bart!


That's why I figured if everyone starts seeking yields, causing ZB to drop in price, that can cause the NDX to drop too. See Feb/March of this year.
 
I am saying yields go down.

I can't fathom where a belief that bonds can't go up if the nasdaq is going down could come from. And I'm not really interested in investigating where that belief comes from. If that's a belief of yours, then... ok. We should agree to disagree.
 
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ooooh... I think I get where our discrepancy comes from. I don't buy into the narrative that growth stocks are tied to the interest rate. Yes, we should agree to disagree. I have my own studies.
 
Since February, it has done exactly that.
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