As most of you know, Friday was probably the best day of the year so far for trading stocks. The day to me started out pretty average but gradually became more noticeable by around 9:00. Is there any particular way to spot when a day like that will happen? What exactly made that day so special, outside of maybe the spy hitting an important level. why do stocks sometimes move 100% but most of the time never break 30%? I would think everybody would want strong stocks all of the time.
Correct time to go all in? Best period to trade
- Thread starter pk3r1234
- Start date
I'm mainly talking about US stocks making huge moves +30%-200%on big volume, such as SDRL. It was an extremely bullish day and my scanner was full of plays +15%. but it had no correlation to the market that I could see. lately most of the big gaining stocks have been fairly illiquid, or they just chop. I guess it depends on what you trade, I'm not really talking about stocks like Nflx/fb/amzn
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Short term movements (one day's action ) are "random"; driven by rumor, headline reaction, supply and demand flow ( "funds" big block purchases and sales ), etc. The key to statistical success and "deep" geometric compounding, is in building investment models based on statistically significant quantitatively based variables keyed off of "long term" trends ( multi months, years ). Long term trends relating to the general equity market, reflect the assimilation and integration of macro information ( expected earnings, Federal monetary flows, fiscal decisions, underlying economic strength/ contraction, etc. ) that is pertinent to trend "persistence" and higher incidence of positively skewed statistical outcomes.
In terms of a quantitative measure / rationale of the oil sector's strength, over the last 30 years, the oil services sector has shown a statistically significant "edge" in the winter / spring months ( Bolds = risk management variable / reduce to 50% allocation ).
Energy services winter / spring months
1986 -5.5%
1987 13.0%
1988 15.0%
1989 11.4%
1990 4.7%
1991 10.2%
1992 3.3%
1993 23.8%
1994 -2.8%
1995 21.4%
1996 17.7%
1997 -5.5%
1998 30.5%
1999 65.2%
2000 16.0%
2001 3.8%
2002 14.3%
2003 2.7%
2004 3.4%
2005 4.4%
2006 5.6%
2007 17.7%
2008 9.9%
2009 25.7%
2010 9.0%
2011 5.4%
2012 -1.5%
2013 -2.5%
2014 15.6%
2015 6.4%
2016 ?
In terms of a quantitative measure / rationale of the oil sector's strength, over the last 30 years, the oil services sector has shown a statistically significant "edge" in the winter / spring months ( Bolds = risk management variable / reduce to 50% allocation ).
Energy services winter / spring months
1986 -5.5%
1987 13.0%
1988 15.0%
1989 11.4%
1990 4.7%
1991 10.2%
1992 3.3%
1993 23.8%
1994 -2.8%
1995 21.4%
1996 17.7%
1997 -5.5%
1998 30.5%
1999 65.2%
2000 16.0%
2001 3.8%
2002 14.3%
2003 2.7%
2004 3.4%
2005 4.4%
2006 5.6%
2007 17.7%
2008 9.9%
2009 25.7%
2010 9.0%
2011 5.4%
2012 -1.5%
2013 -2.5%
2014 15.6%
2015 6.4%
2016 ?
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You are talking about a stock in a very long bear market (more than 2 years) and heavily shorted (14% OF FLOAT !!!!)
So basically, what you are saying is that SDRL was a good buy because shorters were squeezed and forced to buy back their shorts ?
That's what you are playing or do you scan anything else?
CM
I scan all stocks up 10% on the day with at least 40000 volume per 5m and I have a small study for getting rid of some stocks. It basically looks like yahoo gainers without the small volume. Before this week it seems like nothing has been trending though. Either a large move and a crash or chop. What all of the sudden changed in order for a bunch of stocks to be flying up and trending? march?!