Quote from jack hershey:
the yopic is support lines which the OP draws as trend lines, sort of.
There is only one way to deduce and use trendlines to depict leading indicators of trade signals.
To make money "efficiently" and "effectively", you must have a mind that is fully differentiated.
Making money speends upon knowing that you know all the time.
So this means each bar has to be evaluated properly to do the trend analysis and monitoring.
It is not possible to build your mind if you do trebd following. trend following is a lagging approach.
Reason dictates that you MUST not lag and that you can only deal in the Present. The Present is all you have in reality.
to view markets cogently you watch the future come into the Present.
This is like the action of a funnel where the funnel liines up things in it in the proper order to spill them out in the unveiliing Present.
So bars line up in rows and they are stable in the past.
The Philosophy of History (Danto, Columbis) propounds that PofH can be symmetric among other things. This explains the relative importance of things. the concept of "confirmation" is allowed to die through reasoning, we hope. we actually do not need it so it never enters the picture.
There is always a bar forming. There is NO time between an end of a bar and the beginning of a new bar forming. Therefore, it is not a good thing to use this non time for reasoning answers.
One answer is sought to optimize making the full offer of the market.
You must find the event that optimizes makiing money using trend monitoring and analysis. Throw away books that deal with the lagging trend following.
xspurt has given you the answer on my behalf.
The event that poptimizes making money is the end of the trend.
You are able to deduce that trends end inside of trend boundaries.
you also have reasoned that ends of bars are not ends of anything except ends of bars usually. If there is an exception, you must recognize it.
Look at all of the points xspurt used to draw lines. None of them were at the ends of bars as measured in time. All were during the formation of the given bar.
Baro san shows us the three parts of a trend. Two ends and one middle. Each trend, then, can be said to have three subtrends. the circles show ends. The line shows middles. this is all on one fractal level.
xspurt jumps fractals. Baro san does NOT jump fractals.
"Little Black Sambo" is a children's story about the topic of running around in circles. It has a buttery ending.
We can conclude and agree with xspurt that a trend ends within a trend and this optimum moment IS EXACTLY WHERE THE NEXT TREND BEGINS.
A theorem results. Write it out in your own words.
This post is about the topic that puzzles the OP: when is the excat time a trend begins. By knowing this you end once and for all the betting of the OODA of the CW.
In trading, you may not bet and confirm if you betted correctly.
You must have a mind already built that tells you "you know that you know". This topic is known as drivel and gibberish to some people. That is their right to name things any way they want. They get the consequences.
To envelop a tend for monitoring and analysis, enclose it always in a parallelogram. Point 1 is the exact place to begin. xspurt has given you the correct name for this point 1.
You take the trade at this point using the opposite sentiment of the prior trend.
This is how making money begins.
Monday, in ES you go long to continue the existing long trend that began at point 1.