Coronavirus, Round 2: This Virus Doesn't Give a $hit about You!

[schizo]

You said this virus was just another flu. Right.
You said this virus would die out in summer. Right again.
You said only your cantankerous grandpa would be affected. Wow, you're a genius!
You said there wouldn't be a second wave. Oh my gawd, you really are a friggin' god.


This virus doesn't care about (your effing) excuses
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/18/us-coronavirus-fall-second-wave-autumn

 

[Same Lazy Element]

You said only your cantankerous grandpa would be affected. Wow, you're a genius!

Meh. It is pretty apparent from the data that age and preexisting conditions is what really matters. That is the reality, despite the media trying to convince us otherwise (and they are trying hard).

Here is the dataset for the NYC.

https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/master/by-age.csv

AGE_GROUP HOSPITALIZED_COUNT DEATH_COUNT
0-17 576 13
18-44 8947 714
45-64 18617 4197
65-74 12231 4663
'75-beyond 15313 9183

https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/master/deaths/deaths-by-underlying-conditions.csv

AGE_GROUP DEATH_COUNT_TOTAL DEATH_COUNT_ILLNESS DEATH_COUNT_NO_ILLNESS DEATH_COUNT_PENDING_ILLNESS
0-17 13 11 1 1
18-44 714 580 23 111
45-64 4197 3736 77 384
65-74 4663 4168 3 492
'75-beyond 9183 7989 2 1192

They don't show the intersection data, but for younger age groups deaths appear to be conditional on pre-existing conditions. For older groups, it's less obvious and for really old people it's a coin toss.

Does it make it less of a serious problem? Somewhat, but not by much. Is there a chance of dying from it even if you are younger and in excellent health? Sure, but it's pretty low. Do we still need to worry about it? Of course.

 

[Nobert]

Do we still need to worry about it? Of course.

The only thing that makes me ,,to worry" is that Musk and Buffet were making jokes about this flu, while half of the ,,experts" here went nuts.

Another thing, - i used to consider those folks somewhat of a higher intelligence- but based on their expressions, theres little to none of correlation between analytical skill and trading/investing.,
Since that would be a completely irrational/stupid statement to make, the only 2 remaining scenarios are :
#1. Those folks are stupid.
#2. Folks like Musk, Buffet and me including, have some serious blindspots going on.

Given the fact that OP compered movie Contagion with flu pandemic (+few other facts that i won't mention due ethic reasons) and success track record of Musk and Buffet, option #2. is simply unlikely, to be the one.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

Since that would be a completely irrational/stupid statement to make, the only 2 remaining scenarios are :
#1. Those folks are stupid.
#2. Folks like Musk, Buffet and me including, have some serious blindspots going on.

Given the fact that OP compered movie Contagion with flu pandemic (+few other facts that i won't mention due ethic reasons) and success track record of Musk and Buffet, option #2. is simply unlikely, to be the one.

Neither Buffer nor Musk are epidemiologists, so it's very possible they underestimate the severity of the situation. Oh, and I love how you included yourself on the same list with them

 

[maxinger]

Virus only care about one thing and that is to multiply exponentially.
Virus looking forward towards round 3 4 5 etc.

So be safe.

 

[smallfil]

Really? I thought the rioters were immune and bullet proof from Corona Virus? See, Democrat governors keep saying that it was another matter. While, they shutdown nail salons, restaurants, gyms, churches but, allowed riots to continue? Of course, I have not heard of a single rioter who has contracted Corona Virus and died from it despite, being in very close physical quarters (no physical distancing required) and no masks in some cases? Maybe, that was a lie? Now, you would think a lot of these rioters would all be infected and close to death?

 

[BAT31]

Speaking of intelligence, how complex of an idea is it to wear a mask and practice social distance to break the chain of transmission of the virus?

It's not a complex idea, yet people cannot comprehend the efficacy of the idea.

 

[Nobert]

Oh, and I love how you included yourself on the same list with them

Did you really didn't understood, that i placed myself there - based on the point of view and not on achievements ?

Neither Buffer nor Musk are epidemiologists, so it's very possible they underestimate the severity of the situation.

It's possible that they have aliens in area 51.

But is it possible, that the richest folks, who made their fortunes based on the calculations of probabilities, are blinded by the raw data.
(given the possible fact, that they have better data sources at their disposal, comparing to that which is available for general audience. Doesn't matter tho, seems that folks don't look at the data or look at it, but see some illusions)

It's not a complex idea, yet people cannot comprehend the efficacy of the idea.

I think that most of em can comprehend it's efficiency, although, that would be too simplistic to say without categorizing them all, since each groups has their own reasons for not doing that :

#1. Can't afford it. True story. Homeless folks.
Grape drink or a new face mask ? Ohhh, give me dat bottle...
#2. Those of a low intelligence, - they wouldn't wear it, even if it had 20% of the death ratio, with the hope, that they might get lucky and escape it.
#3. Those who can comprehend it's efficiency, but, would only do that - if it was a real danger - to them. That's right, to them, and not for his/hers granny.
(selfless folks, but hey, good luck on changing that)
#4. Those who prefer anarchy, being it real or not, the ,,rebellious ones'', teens & idiots.
#5. Those who think that it's a false alarm, and anyway, by now - it's beyond event horizon, it's perma here, until medicine shows up.

 

[easymon1]

Coronavirus, Round 2: This Virus Doesn't Give a $hit about You!

Neither does The $fouch, lol.
makes it a two way street, balance prevails.

 

[Same Lazy Element]

Did you really didn't understood, that i placed myself there - based on the point of view and not on achievements ?

It just sounded funny, that's all.Placing yourself in the same lineup implies equivalency, at least the way you said it. For example, one could have said "Both Moses and Jesus said to love each other, I agree with that" but if someone instead says "Moses, Jesus and I all say to love each other" it puts them in the same cohort as Jesus and Moses.

But is it possible, that the richest folks, who made their fortunes based on the calculations of probabilities, are blinded by the raw data.

Whenever celebrities express their views, it's less about their actual opinions and more about their book. Musk wants the economy open because he needs to make cars etc.

But since we're on the topic of fortunes and biases, we can discuss it too. IMHO, most of the ultra rich have made their fortunes via sheer luck that was marginally supplemented by hard work and good decision-making. The amount of random events required for someone to make it to the far left tail of the distribution is staggering. Sometimes you can trace their success to a single event, like inheriting a fortune or have his parents make the right introduction. Sometimes it's several less obvious events which are equally pivotal.

When someone failed upward multuple times it's not surprising that they have massive blind spots or judgement impairments. In fact, many successful people are frequently the most biased because their success (if it works, don't fuck with it approach) prevents them from considering other opinions.