Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[virtusa]

So, you are actually agreeing with my post that this is worse than the flu ?

I completely agree except for this:
"OMG, you are comparing death rate to total POPULATION ?? WHY ?"

because infected at this moment is completely unreliable.

 

[Turveyd]

Number of death can be found, although it can be manipulated.
Population cannot be manipulated and is known.
Number of infected can only be known if ALL Americans are tested.
The only fairly real numbers are number of death and population. So that number can be used.

Less than 1% of the US population has been tested. Trump told that 1 million Americans were tested, that's 0.3% of the population. How can you know the real numbers of infected people from the ENTIRE US population? The 0.3% has no statistical value.

Compare deaths to infected makes no sense unless we know who is REALLY infected.

Its only tested infected aswell, so UK that's only people bad enough to need hospital care, which is very few.

Glad someone else gets it, massively overly hyped based on wrong numbers.

Uk deaths with literally deaths tested positive, crash your car and die while testing positive and +1 to C19 so messed with numbers, last 2 days adding in heart attacks found at home after that tested positive just nuts.

 

[tsfx]

A) why is the virus going to die in the summer its in countrys where it is summer and HOT!

You do realize that there's flu in african countries ? And not just 1 or 2 cases per year...

It's not just warm weather, it's about people being inside vs people being outside more. Humidity and UV light do help to get the germs down (in the case of flu). People escape indoors from cold AS WELL as from hot.

B) sociàl distancing not shutdown would of been enough just earlier on, no need to bankrupt the world.

Nah, shutdown is still better, it's been proven also that strict approach is more effective than mild approach (let everyone get it and go with herd immunity).

Look, it has pretty much been 4 weeks, not 4 months or 4 years. Businesses go bankrupt not because of COVID but because of modern aggressive pricing models. I discussed this in my last post. This is pretty much inevidable eventually. COVID just speed up things. If it wasn't for COVID it would've been smth else in the future.

You do get everyone on the planet will get this right? Lockdowns just slow its spread down, a little.

That's just your opinion. In the sea of opinions. Just need to see how this unfolds.

 

[tsfx]

I completely agree except for this:
"OMG, you are comparing death rate to total POPULATION ?? WHY ?"

because infected at this moment is completely unreliable.

This wasn't the point. You were comparing flu with COVID. In the case of Flu you used deaths vs infected and in the case COVID you used deaths vs population. If you want to compare against population then use the same metric with flu as well.

And it's not completely unreliable, we already know that there's more cases than reported because of the delay. That's why i dumped 5% down to 1%. That's pricing in 5x more infections than reported. Still not good enough ?

 

[virtusa]

This wasn't the point. You were comparing flu with COVID. In the case of Flu you used deaths vs infected and in the case COVID you used deaths vs population. If you want to compare against population then use the same metric with flu as well.

And it's not completely unreliable, we already know that there's more cases than reported because of the delay. That's why i dumped 5% down to 1%. That's pricing in 5x more infections than reported. Still not good enough ?

I agree that you should always use the same parameters.
You missed my point too. I never spoke about the flu.

But to me at this moment infected versus deaths is not reliable. And that was my point.
Might become reliable if they would have testing results of at least 20% of the population and tested in all areas of the US. 20% would mean around 66 million people. At this moment we don't even reach 3% of these 66 million.

 

[tsfx]

I agree that you should always use the same parameters.
You missed my point too. I never spoke about the flu.

But to me at this moment infected versus deaths is not reliable. And that was my point.
Might become reliable if they would have testing results of at least 20% of the population and tested in all areas of the US. 20% would mean around 66 million people. At this moment we don't even reach 3% of these 66 million.

alright, my bad then

 

[ElCubano]

The government stimulus programs are doing the right thing. To avoid lines at the unemployment office they are giving companies money to keep their people on their payrolls. It's pretty ingenious and while the plan details have been volatile over the last few days, its seems very well thought out and implemented so far... better than most laws that are passed in normal times.

Next week will be telling as it gets implemented next week.

That does nothing for those who are or were let go, no longer working for the company. Those millions of people will need unemployment and they are not going to get it in timely manner. Google it.

As a matter a fact I’m sure a lot of those funds going to companies will get fraudently disbursed. There is not enough manpower to make sure those funds get to the correct employee and not let’s say the small business owners cousins mothers sister. In times like these fraud is easily accomplished.

 

[Cuddles]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/weekly-jobless-claims.html

US weekly jobless claims double to 6.6 million
The torrent of Americans filing for unemployment insurance continued last week as 6.6 million new claims were filed, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones estimated 3.1 million, a week after nearly 3.3 million filings in the first wave of what has been a record-shattering swelling of the jobless ranks.

Before the coronavirus shut down major parts of the U.S. economy, the highest week for claims was 695,000 in 1982. The Great Recession high was 665,000 in March 2009.

However, the sudden stop as the government has instituted social distancing policies caused a cascade of joblessness unlike anything the nation has ever seen.

 

[S2007S]

Incredible!!!!!!



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

The torrent of Americans filing for unemployment insurance continued last week as more than 6.6 million new claims were filed, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones estimated 3.1 million, a week after nearly 3.3 million filings in the first wave of what has been a record-shattering swelling of the jobless ranks. The week ended March 28 totaled 6,648,000

 

[Turveyd]

You do realize that there's flu in african countries ? And not just 1 or 2 cases per year...

It's not just warm weather, it's about people being inside vs people being outside more. Humidity and UV light do help to get the germs down (in the case of flu). People escape indoors from cold AS WELL as from hot.




Nah, shutdown is still better, it's been proven also that strict approach is more effective than mild approach (let everyone get it and go with herd immunity).

Look, it has pretty much been 4 weeks, not 4 months or 4 years. Businesses go bankrupt not because of COVID but because of modern aggressive pricing models. I discussed this in my last post. This is pretty much inevidable eventually. COVID just speed up things. If it wasn't for COVID it would've been smth else in the future.




That's just your opinion. In the sea of opinions. Just need to see how this unfolds.

We have Zero immunity, we are all going to get it, end of story, not an opinion 100% fact.

Only China that did shutdown ( did they ? ) is on the maybe the other side, even then they might not be over yet, but so far hasn't came back, which means most people there have had it and are currently immune. Nobody else is on the other side and nobody who hasn't done shut downs and economic suicide.

We'll have to see how this shapes up, too aggressive and it'll be back and more lockdowns, I suspect UK's 80%+ infected.