Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[newwurldmn]

Well folks I disagree with you on this one... wework is a community (they call it WEwork for a reason) and we should not underestimate the power of community... I am invested in weworks stocks (NYSE ticker. WRK) and I have made tremendous returns with this (and In fact I purchased this stock before they announced the IPO as I had been reading about wework for some time now in my local community centers newsletter) so folks the moral of the story is “invest with your heart and not your soul and your Wallet will follow” .... thanks, Krent

WRK is a different company

If you bought WeWork pre-ipo you’ve lost 80percent of your money before COVID!

 

[tsfx]

Currently, obviously its increasing, but really hope deaths don't double from here, cause there getting on top of and hopefully over the peak.

So.....


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Deaths today 13,115

Population 60.5Million.

13,115 / 60500000 = 0.0216%

Italy had it bad, over ran there health care sadly, so those are BAD numbers, ( USA will beat don't worry )

See MUCH smaller percentages than your being told, because there passing off, Deaths / Tested as mortality rate to scare the crap out of everyone, muppets.

OMG, you are comparing death rate to total POPULATION ?? WHY ?

death rate is compared to total infected not to total population. Flu has a rate of 0.1% while corona has up to 5% (check infected vs deaths world total). Sure, it probably isn't THAT high but it's definitely above 1% if not close to 2% (WHO estimated 3.4% at some point but that's probably an exaggeration). This fact alone is telling that it's AL LEAST 10x deadlier than the flu. Secondly, 1 person is infecting around 2.5 people while flu is around 1.3. So, it spreads 2x more easily. Yes, the death rate is also largely skewed towards older people but it's still high.

Let that sink in for a second: 10-20x more deadly and spreads 2x faster. Still think it's just a flu? That's why the world is shut down. Otherwise you'd see much much more cases of corona than flu.

Flu has a vaccine, so that's your safety net plus it's confirmed to be seasonal. We have none of those confirmed AT THE MOMENT. We can speculate that yes, corona will be the same but for now it's just a guess. The only way around this is vaccine (sadly). Otherwise, the v2 of corona next year will make a complete system error in the world financial system.

We already got flu, so we don't really need a competition for that. It's not like it's replacing flu, it's another disease.

 

[tsfx]

The government stimulus programs are doing the right thing. To avoid lines at the unemployment office they are giving companies money to keep their people on their payrolls. It's pretty ingenious and while the plan details have been volatile over the last few days, its seems very well thought out and implemented so far... better than most laws that are passed in normal times.

Next week will be telling as it gets implemented next week.

I'd say, it's not the right thing, it's just that there is no alternative. The modern business models are built on the assumption that there will be no force majeure's. Noone has any reserves because if you did you'd be out of competition because there's always someone who is always all in. No reserves coupled with leveraged business models tweaked to the absolute maximum is where the problem is. Lol, airlines can't even afford one empty seat, let that sink in.

Actually, there is no problem because there is no better alternative. If we were more conservative in our business models then there would be much much lower GDP and much higher unemployment. Is that what we want ? So, there isn't nothing really to discuss about it, and we should take the world as it is

 

[virtusa]

OMG, you are comparing death rate to total POPULATION ?? WHY ?

death rate is compared to total infected not to total population.

Number of death can be found, although it can be manipulated.
Population cannot be manipulated and is known.
Number of infected can only be known if ALL Americans are tested.
The only fairly real numbers are number of death and population. So that number can be used.

Less than 1% of the US population has been tested. Trump told that 1 million Americans were tested, that's 0.3% of the population. How can you know the real numbers of infected people from the ENTIRE US population? The 0.3% has no statistical value.

Compare deaths to infected makes no sense unless we know who is REALLY infected.

 

[tsfx]

Number of death can be found, although it can be manipulated.
Population cannot be manipulated and is known.
Number of infected can only be known if ALL Americans are tested.
The only fairly real numbers are number of death and population. So that number can be used.

Less than 1% of the US population has been tested. Trump told that 1 million Americans were tested, that's 0.3% of the population. How can you know the real numbers of infected people from the ENTIRE US population? The 0.3% has no statistical value.

Compare deaths to infected makes no sense unless we know who is REALLY infected.

You are missing my point, you need to compare apples to apples. Flu is compared against infected, so you need to compare corona also against infected if you care about comparing those two diseases. The offical rate at the moment is 5%, i dropped it to 1%. safe to say i took quite a large chunk off of it to make it more realistic. It's also important to witness the incoming flow of new diseases vs incoming deaths every day to get a glimse of how the stats unfold. You do see the stability in incoming flows don't you ? Now you just have to apply a decent variation to it, to get an applausible idea of the situation.

 

[virtusa]

To compare apples with apples you should wait till this virus is completely over. You compare continuously changing numbers with final numbers of some other disease.
You also don't know how many people are infected, so that number is fake. With an incubation time of up to 27 days, the big wave still has to come. The real damage will only be known when all is over. You can only see an evolution from day to day.

I took the REAL and KNOWN numbers of the last 14 days and this is the result:

• number of infected people up 1393%
• number of deaths up 2377%
• number of deaths compared to number odf infected: up 66%
• number of dead versus infected grows 66%

So the number of infected grows, but number of deaths grows much faster, which is bad. It shows that the problems gets worse ( less capacity in hospitals, less machines, less material...)
That is confirmed by the dead to infected ratio which is up too, meaning that in relation to infected people more people die.

 

[tsfx]

To compare apples with apples you should wait till this virus is completely over. You compare continuously changing numbers with final numbers of some other disease.
You also don't know how many people are infected, so that number is fake. With an incubation time of up to 27 days, the big wave still has to come. The real damage will only be known when all is over. You can only see an evolution from day to day.

I took the REAL and KNOWN numbers of the last 14 days and this is the result:

• number of infected people up 1393%
• number of deaths up 2377%
• number of deaths compared to number odf infected: up 66%
• number of dead versus infected grows 66%

So the number of infected grows, but number of deaths grows much faster, which is bad. It shows that the problems gets worse ( less capacity in hospitals, less machines, less material...)
That is confirmed by the dead to infected ratio which is up too, meaning that in relation to infected people more people die.

View attachment 223798

So, you are actually agreeing with my post that this is worse than the flu ?

 

[newwurldmn]

I'd say, it's not the right thing, it's just that there is no alternative. The modern business models are built on the assumption that there will be no force majeure's. Noone has any reserves because if you did you'd be out of competition because there's always someone who is always all in. No reserves coupled with leveraged business models tweaked to the absolute maximum is where the problem is. Lol, airlines can't even afford one empty seat, let that sink in.

Actually, there is no problem because there is no better alternative. If we were more conservative in our business models then there would be much much lower GDP and much higher unemployment. Is that what we want ? So, there isn't nothing really to discuss about it, and we should take the world as it is

That is a legitimate debatable point. Do we accept occasional times like the Great Recession and the economic fallout of COVID in order to have a much higher standard of living the other 10 years; or do we accept a lower standard of living and have fewer blowups?

 

[Banjo]

That is a legitimate debatable point. Do we accept occasional times like the Great Recession and the economic fallout of COVID in order to have a much higher standard of living the other 10 years; or do we accept a lower standard of living and have fewer blowups?

The entire economy is built on the bleeding edge of credit. It doesn't take much to disrupt it.

 

[Turveyd]

Again you are missing the point. Comparing to the total population means recognizing that shutting the entire economy was the only reason the death rate is .0216percent of the population. The flu is the same but we don’t have to shut down the economy to achieve the same death toll as COVID-19.

Infection rates are high without social distancing. And death rates/infection rates go up as infection rates/hospital capacity goes up. So if hospital capacity is fixed and relatively low and there is no social distancing what would the death toll be? The ultimate Truther said 2MM in the US. And that's assuming this virus dies in the summer. What do you say?

A) why is the virus going to die in the summer its in countrys where it is summer and HOT!

B) sociàl distancing not shutdown would of been enough just earlier on, no need to bankrupt the world.

C) a truther do you mean someone your snowflake sensibilitys agree with.

Lets see how Sweden does, not a snowflake country so don't be pushing your views onto them.

You do get everyone on the planet will get this right? Lockdowns just slow its spread down, a little.