Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[Snuskpelle]

Study Sweden, remember only 10mil population so scale it to match, there doing very little, we'll see if much different, my bet is, not much different.

We basically have a team (Folkhälsomyndigheten FHM, National Health Service or similar) of experts setting the strategy and the government just initiating/signing off on measures recommended by this team. They're basing it on international research and some simulations they did on how various measures impact epidemic growth rates in Sweden. Basically, it is accepted that over half the population or more will eventually get the virus, but the growth rate is to be kept under control so that everyone gets proper medical care by avoiding overfull hospitals as far as possible. Additionally, the intent is to preserve/avoid interrupting economy as much as possible.

In other words, there's some thought behind this. Whether this works out remains to be seen...

To be balanced and to shit talk my country: Aspects of Swedish preparation have been severely lacking. We have a decentralized (regional) layer of healthcare that is responsible for stockpiling medical supplies, which they have completely failed to do for emergencies (in fact it has been breaking down during normal circumstances). The military was basically decommissioned in the 90s-00s (only being rebuilt latest years) so comparatively little assistance from military healthcare. etc. May well happen that we get unnecessarily high death numbers for these reasons regardless of anything the FHM/NHS does now.

 

[Turveyd]

We basically have a team (Folkhälsomyndigheten FHM, National Health Service or similar) of experts setting the strategy and the government just initiating/signing off on measures recommended by this team. They're basing it on international research and some simulations they did on how various measures impact epidemic growth rates in Sweden. Basically, it is accepted that over half the population or more will eventually get the virus, but the growth rate is to be kept under control so that everyone gets proper medical care by avoiding overfull hospitals as far as possible. Additionally, the intent is to preserve interrupting economy as much as possible.

In other words, there's some thought behind this. Whether this works out remains to be seen...

To be balanced and to shit talk my country: Aspects of Swedish preparation have been severely lacking. We have a decentralized (regional) layer of healthcare that is responsible for stockpiling medical supplies, which they have completely failed to do for emergencies (in fact it has been breaking down during normal circumstances). The military was basically decommissioned in the 90s-00s (only being rebuilt latest years) so comparatively little assistance from military healthcare. etc. May well happen that we get unnecessarily high death numbers for these reasons regardless of anything the FHM/NHS does now.

Hopefully I'm and there right and the death rate, won't be affected to much, I know army building a make shift hospital incase they get over runs, fingers crossed.

Saving the Economy is a balancing act, in the UK most places, our kids kids will be paying for this, which is never good, as we've went 100% save lives and screw the economy.

 

[Turveyd]

Show me one study that says Italy’s death rate is .025percent.

Going to as always ignore anything that doesn't agree with the norm, then ask the same question again and again, rather than you know, understand basic math's ??

https://genesiustimes.com/gts-definitive-guide-to-panicking-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

no.3 is my fav!!

 

[noddyboy]

I'm extremely bearish but damn I wouldn't even have predicted such numbers. I highly highly highly doubt the fed even allows this too happen. I'm sure once unemployment starts to really tick up the fed will announce a $5-$10 trillion dollar package deal. No way will they allow this since 70% of gdp is dumb consumer spending.

We are going straight down man. Look at JC Penny. They are all bankrupt. Sure the bondholders will own it, but as for stocks it is worth $0.

 

[Cuddles]

We are going straight down man. Look at JC Penny. They are all bankrupt. Sure the bondholders will own it, but as for stocks it is worth $0.

JC Penny is hardly the bellwether of the economy's health. What else do you use for metrics, SEARS? RadioShack? I have no doubt we'll keep going down but JCPenny's been a dumpster money bleeding fire for over a decade now.

 

[Turveyd]

JC Penny is hardly the bellwether of the economy's health. What else do you use for metrics, SEARS? RadioShack? I have no doubt we'll keep going down but JCPenny's been a dumpster money bleeding fire for over a decade now.

You still got RadioShack ?? ie Tandy's ??? went in the UK 20years ago and Maplins last year

 

[Krent Birshner]

JC Penny is hardly the bellwether of the economy's health. What else do you use for metrics, SEARS? RadioShack? I have no doubt we'll keep going down but JCPenny's been a dumpster money bleeding fire for over a decade now.

Folks good discussions here.... agree that retailers (and some “e-tailers” as I like to call them) are in deep trouble... my thoughts on this are very complex so I won’t bother summerizing for folks but in short I think there is an opportunity here to turn these empty stores into school gymnasiums? I have run the numbers on this and think there’s lots of opportunity... for example if JC Panny leaves a store and you claim it first (my understanding is “finders keepers” applies for bankrupt businesses) then you’re investment is low and you can rent the space out to high schools who need gymnasiams? ... suppose you will need to invest in “capital equipment” such as basketball hoops, maybe Dick’s sporting goods is also an interesting investment right now? Just some thoughts for folks let me know where you stand, happy to chat send me a message.... Krent

 

[Cuddles]

Folks good discussions here.... agree that retailers (and some “e-tailers” as I like to call them) are in deep trouble... my thoughts on this are very complex so I won’t bother summerizing for folks but in short I think there is an opportunity here to turn these empty stores into school gymnasiums? I have run the numbers on this and think there’s lots of opportunity... for example if JC Panny leaves a store and you claim it first (my understanding is “finders keepers” applies for bankrupt businesses) then you’re investment is low and you can rent the space out to high schools who need gymnasiams? ... suppose you will need to invest in “capital equipment” such as basketball hoops, maybe Dick’s sporting goods is also an interesting investment right now? Just some thoughts for folks let me know where you stand, happy to chat send me a message.... Krent

they'll become Amazon fulfillment centers just like every other mall/retailer out there.

 

[Turveyd]

Show me one study that says Italy’s death rate is .025percent.

Full list of calcs by someone else saying the same.

 

[hhiusa]

this is where you, I and Dozuu agree , there will be more trillions thrown at this problem.

But will it work this time??? remains to be seen.

Yes and no. It may do something nobody is talking about: debt. Everyone must be forgetting introductory macroeconomics. You don't just get to take on more debt and keep the status quo. Should they make the colossally stupid error of even trying to pass a $10 trillion package, it would scare anybody with an education.

It would raise the debt-to-GDP to never before seen levels on par with the abysmally insolvent countries like Italy and Greece. [23,201,380M+10T] / GDP = 150.9% up from current levels of 105.46%. Italy is at 130+% debt-to-GDP. These countries with high debt ratios have to offer debt instruments with ultra high yields.

How would we ever repay that? A 8-10% yield would result in nearly $1tn per year til maturity on top of current debt.

Assuming we just print the money, that would an unheard of inflationary event.