Coronavirus DEBATE: Why are Americans dumb as fck?
- Thread starter KCalhoun
- Start date
What's your point? 25k flu deaths between feb and May, 109k deaths on covid....so what if it's not a year worth of data? Flu deaths will be lower this year due to the quarantine but even using previous full year's data we've already doubled on COVID (with a nationwide quarantine). Unless you're claiming reported covid deaths are fake news pushed by Purell, then there's no point even having an argument.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...d/news-story/c7622e0584b4f07355e05082e428af8b
Call to abandon ‘failed’ health forecast models
‘Despite involving many excellent modellers, best intentions and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed’: Sally Cripps, a professor of statistics at the University of Sydney. Source: Twitter
A top statistician has blasted “doomsday” COVID-19 forecasts that pressured governments to lock down their economies for months as a “failure”, and said predictions hospitals would be overwhelmed with patients were “entirely misinforming”.
Sally Cripps, a professor of statistics at the University of Sydney, has weighed into the debate over coronavirus modelling that has contributed to the sharpest economic downturn in a century, in research written with Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis.
“Despite involving many excellent modellers, best intentions and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed,” they wrote in a draft analysis published earlier this month.
“Implausible, exaggerated forecasts should be abandoned — otherwise they may cause more harm than the virus itself.”
The unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 per cent in May, a 19-year high, as lockdowns imposed by state governments in March to avoid predictions of tens of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 hammered the labour market. So far, 102 people have died from, or with, COVID-19 in Australia.
Even with strict, mandatory social-distancing measures, the Doherty Institute modelling that informed the national cabinet’s decisions suggested about 5000 intensive care beds would be required, when fewer than 100 have been used.
“Most hospitals maintained largely empty wards, waiting for tsunamis that never came,” the authors wrote, pointing to hugely pessimistic forecasts for New York, one of the cities worst hit by the coronavirus.
In late March, Columbia University projected 136,000 beds would be required; the maximum used was less than 12,000, and at the peak of the virus’s impact a sixth of hospital beds were free.
Massachusetts General Hospital predicted 23,000 deaths within months of the US state of Georgia reopening, yet the actual number was 896, the authors said.
They argued the most widely reported models “lacked transparency”, used poor quality data and focused on deaths rather than the concept of “quality adjusted life years”, which factors in the age of those affected.
“The Spanish flu (with a death toll more than 50 million globally) killed young people with an average age of 28, and its burden in terms of number of quality adjusted person years lost was about 1000-fold higher than COVID-19,” they said.
“Isolating the infectious impact from all other health, economy and social impacts is dangerously narrow-minded,” they argued, pointing to the likelihood of “starvation and lack of control for other infectious diseases like tuberculosis and malaria”.
Modelling for swine flu predicted 3000 to 65,000 deaths in the UK, yet 457 died.
“It is surprising that epidemic forecasting has retained much credibility among decision-makers, given its dubious track record,” the authors wrote.
Call to abandon ‘failed’ health forecast models
‘Despite involving many excellent modellers, best intentions and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed’: Sally Cripps, a professor of statistics at the University of Sydney. Source: Twitter
A top statistician has blasted “doomsday” COVID-19 forecasts that pressured governments to lock down their economies for months as a “failure”, and said predictions hospitals would be overwhelmed with patients were “entirely misinforming”.
Sally Cripps, a professor of statistics at the University of Sydney, has weighed into the debate over coronavirus modelling that has contributed to the sharpest economic downturn in a century, in research written with Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis.
“Despite involving many excellent modellers, best intentions and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed,” they wrote in a draft analysis published earlier this month.
“Implausible, exaggerated forecasts should be abandoned — otherwise they may cause more harm than the virus itself.”
The unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 per cent in May, a 19-year high, as lockdowns imposed by state governments in March to avoid predictions of tens of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 hammered the labour market. So far, 102 people have died from, or with, COVID-19 in Australia.
Even with strict, mandatory social-distancing measures, the Doherty Institute modelling that informed the national cabinet’s decisions suggested about 5000 intensive care beds would be required, when fewer than 100 have been used.
“Most hospitals maintained largely empty wards, waiting for tsunamis that never came,” the authors wrote, pointing to hugely pessimistic forecasts for New York, one of the cities worst hit by the coronavirus.
In late March, Columbia University projected 136,000 beds would be required; the maximum used was less than 12,000, and at the peak of the virus’s impact a sixth of hospital beds were free.
Massachusetts General Hospital predicted 23,000 deaths within months of the US state of Georgia reopening, yet the actual number was 896, the authors said.
They argued the most widely reported models “lacked transparency”, used poor quality data and focused on deaths rather than the concept of “quality adjusted life years”, which factors in the age of those affected.
“The Spanish flu (with a death toll more than 50 million globally) killed young people with an average age of 28, and its burden in terms of number of quality adjusted person years lost was about 1000-fold higher than COVID-19,” they said.
“Isolating the infectious impact from all other health, economy and social impacts is dangerously narrow-minded,” they argued, pointing to the likelihood of “starvation and lack of control for other infectious diseases like tuberculosis and malaria”.
Modelling for swine flu predicted 3000 to 65,000 deaths in the UK, yet 457 died.
“It is surprising that epidemic forecasting has retained much credibility among decision-makers, given its dubious track record,” the authors wrote.
Oh no, smallfil has me on ignore. Where did I go wrong?
Most people value the lives of people they don't know, this is why we have towns and cities instead of caves now. You would be in a cave then.
America is not a pure democracy where near every policy is voted on all the time like parts of Switzerland. In a constitutional republic you elect people to govern on their judgement with rare exceptions. They make the call so its not overreach at all. Plans on how to deal with the initially understood worst case infection rate and fatality rate were made years ago and pretty much the same all over the world as its epidemiology science best practice.
Just because you don't like the result does not mean it was not the least worst scenario available.
Without the lockdown 300-400 million dead right now in the US. Millions of people experiencing genuine PTSD and as Sweden discovered since all your foreign customers have shut down with the exception of agriculture, you don't have a lot to sell.
You are still in the first wave, the virus does not care you are bored with it. We do however have treatment options not there three months back so many will live.
To be honest lately I'm sensing my own brain getting susceptible to stupidity. I re-did a head gasket on a car when all I needed was to change the coolant tank (small fracture hidden in the screw thread for the cap letting pressure escape, fooled the pressure tester as it sealed it screwing on)... I'd never have been caught like that even a months ago. But.. I guess since I retired from trading about four months ago and had a good three month veg out.. the logical deduction killer-hamster fell out of the wheel.
It will settle, some compromise and boil again and on, bulls of bullshit and bears of peace.
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I put him on ignore a long time ago, he is just brain damaged, his thoughts are not even worthless in a morbidly entertaining manner.
It seems there is no such thing as a post too racist for him. Kind of like a dumb Labrador Retriever trying to get your attention so you throw the ball as hard as you can down the hill.