What I'd be interested in is a true understanding of the mortality rate by demographic. There is a certain - probably large - factor that has to be applied to "3rd world medicine and response", right? I mean, the mortality rate of Malaria in Thailand is probably worse than the mortality rate of Malaria in the US. You need to somehow remove that factor from the equation - and I have no idea how you do that.
Then you need to look at the infected and factor out the very young and very old and immuno compromised and see what the mortality rate is to a healthy person - that is what is relevant in comparison to the every day flu virus, or SARS or whatever in terms of how lethal this virus is.
If this virus hops over to India, you can almost assure a number that goes into the hundreds of thousands rather quickly - and a lot of the mortality will be because of third world facilities and medicine, not the virus's ability to take someone down in modern day medicine.
Make sense? I'd love to follow a real discussion on this but you guys right now are just flinging shit back and forth onto each other. Give it a rest already.
Agreed, you need accurate data, unfortunately we’re not getting it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor
Peng: Lately I've been spending the daytime seeing patients in the ICU, then doing some research in the evenings. I just wrote a thesis. I drew on data from 138 cases that South Central Hospital had from Jan 7 to Jan 28 and attempted to summarise some patterns of the novel coronavirus.
A lot of viruses will die off on their own after a certain amount of time. We call these self-limited diseases.
I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.
But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.
The third week determines whether critical illness leads to death. Some in critical condition who receive treatment can raise their level of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, and see an improvement in their immune systems, and have been brought back, so to speak. But those whose lymphocyte numbers continue to decline, those whose immune systems are destroyed in the end, experience multiple organ failure and die.
For most, the illness is over in two weeks, whereas for those for whom the illness becomes severe, if they can survive three weeks, they're good. Those that can't will die in three weeks.
