A new analysis of coronavirus deaths suggests that official tolls are massively undercounting all over the world
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...higher-than-official-tolls-ft-analysis-2020-4
- The global coronavirus death toll could be significantly higher than official tallies, a new analysis from the Financial Times found.
- The Financial Times compared how many more people died — from any cause — in early 2020 than in a normal year.
- This gives a picture of the scale of the pandemic that doesn't rely on virus-specific data from national health authorities, which are likely undercounting.
- The global death toll could be as much as 60% higher, according to the Financial Times.
A new analysis of coronavirus deaths in 14 countries found that official death tolls are likely massively understating the true scale of the pandemic.
The Financial Times studied the number of deaths from all causes in 14 countries in March and April, then compared that figure with the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. It concluded that the difference between the two was a reasonable estimate of how many extra deaths the pandemic had caused.
The Financial Times found that the death toll calculated this way was almost 60% higher than the various countries' official death tolls: a total of 122,000 deaths above normal levels, compared with 77,000 from the official numbers.
It has long been clear that official figures — usually from national health ministries — are not capturing all the deaths from the pandemic. Some governments, for instance,
do not include deaths in care homes.
The Financial Times said its figure might also capture deaths that are indirectly attributable to the virus — for example, people who died of other health problems because national systems were overwhelmed with virus patients.
But it said most were directly related to the virus. "Excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst COVID-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns," the report said.
The analysis looked at countries including Denmark, Italy, Spain, France, Ecuador, Sweden, and England and Wales.
It also looked at specific regions.
For example, the newspaper said that in Ecuador's Guayas province, which has been hit hard by the virus, 245 coronavirus deaths were reported from March 1 to April 15. But overall death statistics showed that about 10,200 more people died during this period than the average in previous years, an increase of 350%.
(More at above url)