corn spreads

July11 - Dec11

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ok gentlemen, let's get past how the usda came up with their numbers last week and suffice to say that the market clearly is trading off of yields and stocks that are much tighter. Back to the original question then, why are old crop spreads tightening ? Reminds me of 1988 when we experienced a drought. I was standing in the pit with a cargill trader on one side of me and a Conti trader on the other. Cargill trader started selling a spread (50% of carry) and conti was buying. It was one of those trades where the numbers just kpet going higher. Anyways to make a long story short, specs were long (fund activity not what it is today) and they ultimately rolled their longs at full carry. However, selling spreads this time feels like standing in front of a freight train. Funds are going to sell the z/h, then h/k etc, but not just yet. Should create lots of opportunity. Anyone with an explanation ?

Regards local
 
Quote from badmrfrosty:

Show me a link anywhere then where the USDA admits this. USDA has still stood by(as recently as this morning), although the speculation is that they are idiots and so market is ignoring the statement. You have no idea what you are talking about. I'm done.
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I believe the link you are looking for can be found in today's release. Apparently, the usda only released the info to select customers earlier in the week. The tone of you comments belies your ignorance, lack of trading knowledge. Perhaps you should think about changing your handle to mrdontknownothing.

regards, local
 
Any suggestions on where old crop/ new crop spreads are going to stop ? Corn up 15 today spread gaining12. Says something.

regards, local
 
Honestly, I've had a great couple of weeks trading the corn calendar spreads, but truth be told I really could care less about 'old crop, new crop'. I have technical models and make my decisions based on price action only - my theory being that all of the fundamentals are included into the price print and there's no way on God's green green earth that I'm going to make some sort of divine interpretation ahead of all the commercials in the markets.
 
Old crop / new crop has moved 60 cents over the past 5 trading days, don't know hwo you had a great few weeks trading old crop, they haven't moved more than a few cents.

Regards, local
 
Because my model had me long March 11 - May 11 Sugar on the NYBOT, and long Corn July 11 - Dec 11. So yeah, it has been a great week. The buy in the corn spread was signalled on October 05th. And I still don't know about 'old crop, new crop', I'm sure that the rest of the world is much more knowledgeable than I am about softs in general.

Working out great, though.
 
Quote from bone:

Because my model had me long March 11 - May 11 Sugar on the NYBOT, and long Corn July 11 - Dec 11. So yeah, it has been a great week. The buy in the corn spread was signalled on October 05th. And I still don't know about 'old crop, new crop', I'm sure that the rest of the world is much more knowledgeable than I am about softs in general.

Working out great, though.
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Just to clarify, you don't know about old crop/ new crop corn spreads but are trading N/Z. N/Z is old crop/ new crop. How can you trade something you don't know anything about ? How can your model give you a signal if it doesn't somehow recognize old crop/new crop ? This is grain spreads 101, something doesn't smell right.

Regards, local
 
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