corn spreads

L

local

Both old crop and old crop-new crop corn spreads narrowed significantly overnite and again today. I can understand the old crop-new crop but am a little surprised at the old crop. Any ideas.
 
I don't trade the spreads; just the front month contracts.

But if you find out why grains are holding in this market please let us know.
 
Quote from mgookin:

I don't trade the spreads; just the front month contracts.

But if you find out why grains are holding in this market please let us know.
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The market has discounted the usda stocks report issued last thursday and gone back to rationing old crop. This in response to usda admitting that its figures may have included new crop stocks. Tomorrow will be very interesting, seems like trade wants to discount/ignore usda report. Interestinglly, when prices dropped late last week, open interest hardly changed suggesting end-users were using the drop to price product. This helped rally prices once long liquidation came to an end. Lots of opportunity in spreads overnite, don't know why any one would narrow spreads in overnite trade, wait for regular session.

regards, local
 
Quote from badmrfrosty:

Typical ET info.

USDA actually specifically came out and said that this number did not include new crop.
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You're living in the past. First they said it was only old crop then came out and said it may have included new crop. Typical Et trader.

Regards, local
 
Show me a link anywhere then where the USDA admits this. USDA has still stood by(as recently as this morning), although the speculation is that they are idiots and so market is ignoring the statement. You have no idea what you are talking about. I'm done.
 
Yes----any link will do----thanks in advance.

Last I heard there was no comingling.....

It would change everything if it was a possibility!

DEC 10/MARCH 10-----very interesting move right before a report...almost seems like somebody knows something early. That spread is not easy to move in the middle of harvest!

Floor/Commercials got the inside scoop?

We will know more tommorrow---as the report is going to be huge!!!!!!!!!!

possibly
 
Quote from badmrfrosty:

Show me a link anywhere then where the USDA admits this. USDA has still stood by(as recently as this morning), although the speculation is that they are idiots and so market is ignoring the statement. You have no idea what you are talking about. I'm done.
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I read it earlier in the week in one of the newsletters that I receive daily. Most of them are useless, but I found this interesting, traded off of it (as the rest of the market that realized what was happeing) and had a very good week trading corn. Was actually short spreads at the beginning of the week.
Anyways, sounds like you are a day late and probably a few dollars short. Happy trading.

Regards, local
 
agree with local. With the early harvest, and country elevators needing to quick ship the bushels, especially in areas such as KS where big crops of corn, milo and beans are coming off directly following a large wheat crop that is still mostly in storage due to the sizeable carries.....those early harvested bushels moved into domestic (mostly feed / ethanol) end use channels before the typical "new crop" period, and WERE counted in old crop.
 
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