corn spreads
- Thread starter local
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Corn futures are sharply lower at midsession with limit losses being seen. USDA revisions for corn were bearish for prices with production and December 1 corn stocks higher-than-expected. Corn production for 2011 is estimated at 12.358 billion bushels, up 48 million bushels from November, while the trade was anticipating a decrease. December 1 stocks, at 9.642 billion bushels, came in nearly 250 million bushels above trade expectations. U.S. ending stocks are projected at 846 million bushels, down only 2 million from December, but about 100 million above trade expectations. March futures are 40 cents lower at $6.11 1/2 and May is 40 cents lower at $6.18 1/4.
Soybean futures are strongly lower at midday. USDA reports this morning were net fundamentally bearish. USDA increased its forecast for U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 275 million. USDAâs final estimate of production for the 2011 crop was increased by 10 million to 3.056 billion bushels. Those are bearish revisions. On the bullish side, USDA lowered its forecasts for South American production and it lowered its forecast for global ending stocks. USDA reported the quarterly stocks of soybeans at 2.366 billion bushels. That was above expectations, but consistent with the crop itself totaling larger than expected. January is 29 1/2 cents lower at $11.68 and March is 31 1/2 cents lower at $11.71 1/2.
Wheat futures are trading sharply lower at midsession. Of three significant reports released by USDA this morning, only one (Dec. 1 Grain Stocks) was even slightly friendly. The other two were bearish, with 2012 Winter Wheat Seedings especially bearish. For December 1 stocks, USDA came in at 1.656 billion bu., 39 million below the average pre-report trade. But total winter wheat seedings for 2012 came in at 41.947 million acres, up 3.2% from 40.646 million in 2011 and more than a million acres higher than the average pre-report trade estimate. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 were raised by a net 1.5 million metric tons. CBOT March is 41 1/4 cents lower at $5.99 3/4, KCBT March is 40 cents lower at $6.61 3/4 and MGE March is 15 1/4 cents lower at $8.01 1/4.
Cattle futures are trading mostly lower at midday. The nearby February contract is slightly higher as traders remain uncertain about the direction of the cash market this week. Packer processing margins are poor, but showlists are smaller this week and packers are short-bought. Deferreds are being pressured by declining beef prices and the sharp decline in corn prices this morning. February is 25 cents higher at $121.58 while April is 8 cents lower at $125.23.
Lean hog futures are mixed at midsession. Nearby hog contracts are trading higher on short-covering amid ideas that the losses on Wednesday were overdone and on the strong tone in the cash market. But later deferred months are being pressured by the sharp decline in corn prices, which could encourage increased pork production. February is $1.15 higher at $84.05 and April is 95 cents higher at $86.75.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/USDA-reports-weigh-on-crop-markets-137185698.html
Soybean futures are strongly lower at midday. USDA reports this morning were net fundamentally bearish. USDA increased its forecast for U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 275 million. USDAâs final estimate of production for the 2011 crop was increased by 10 million to 3.056 billion bushels. Those are bearish revisions. On the bullish side, USDA lowered its forecasts for South American production and it lowered its forecast for global ending stocks. USDA reported the quarterly stocks of soybeans at 2.366 billion bushels. That was above expectations, but consistent with the crop itself totaling larger than expected. January is 29 1/2 cents lower at $11.68 and March is 31 1/2 cents lower at $11.71 1/2.
Wheat futures are trading sharply lower at midsession. Of three significant reports released by USDA this morning, only one (Dec. 1 Grain Stocks) was even slightly friendly. The other two were bearish, with 2012 Winter Wheat Seedings especially bearish. For December 1 stocks, USDA came in at 1.656 billion bu., 39 million below the average pre-report trade. But total winter wheat seedings for 2012 came in at 41.947 million acres, up 3.2% from 40.646 million in 2011 and more than a million acres higher than the average pre-report trade estimate. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 were raised by a net 1.5 million metric tons. CBOT March is 41 1/4 cents lower at $5.99 3/4, KCBT March is 40 cents lower at $6.61 3/4 and MGE March is 15 1/4 cents lower at $8.01 1/4.
Cattle futures are trading mostly lower at midday. The nearby February contract is slightly higher as traders remain uncertain about the direction of the cash market this week. Packer processing margins are poor, but showlists are smaller this week and packers are short-bought. Deferreds are being pressured by declining beef prices and the sharp decline in corn prices this morning. February is 25 cents higher at $121.58 while April is 8 cents lower at $125.23.
Lean hog futures are mixed at midsession. Nearby hog contracts are trading higher on short-covering amid ideas that the losses on Wednesday were overdone and on the strong tone in the cash market. But later deferred months are being pressured by the sharp decline in corn prices, which could encourage increased pork production. February is $1.15 higher at $84.05 and April is 95 cents higher at $86.75.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/latest/USDA-reports-weigh-on-crop-markets-137185698.html
Hi guys... new in this thread and as far as I saw it, u know business.
got few questions :
1. After the Jan USDA report and the limit down in corn, I saw the spreads going down sharply : WH12-WN12 to -.44ish along with WN12-WZ12.
After the Price a few days later inclined these spreads and especially the 1st exploded to -.25 and -.31 respectively. Not to mention that these spreads are 35% of the full cost of carry. (based on 0.00565$ /Bu/day)
What's going on here??
2. What about the rollover for March?? what are the dates it should take place and if you know at what time (the end/middle/start of the pit session)? Local mentioned Jim Rogers' holdings. Is it still large numbers of contracts?
3. While the Spreads of Corn & Wheat went to the roofs the old crop beans spreads going down SH12-SN12 to -.19. Is it an opp. after the La nina's effect on BRAZIL & ARGNTINA?
THANKS guys
got few questions :
1. After the Jan USDA report and the limit down in corn, I saw the spreads going down sharply : WH12-WN12 to -.44ish along with WN12-WZ12.
After the Price a few days later inclined these spreads and especially the 1st exploded to -.25 and -.31 respectively. Not to mention that these spreads are 35% of the full cost of carry. (based on 0.00565$ /Bu/day)
What's going on here??
2. What about the rollover for March?? what are the dates it should take place and if you know at what time (the end/middle/start of the pit session)? Local mentioned Jim Rogers' holdings. Is it still large numbers of contracts?
3. While the Spreads of Corn & Wheat went to the roofs the old crop beans spreads going down SH12-SN12 to -.19. Is it an opp. after the La nina's effect on BRAZIL & ARGNTINA?
THANKS guys
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The March 30 USDA Planting Intentions Report will be out Friday. It could be a barnburner, combined with the Quarterly Stocks report out that same day.
Pro Ag is very concerned there will be more 'found' acreage due to the large amount of prevented planted acreage last year (over 10 million acres) and the added 2-3 million acres of CRP/new breaking ground expected to come into production in the US.
Given trader expectations, Pro Ag expects another 4 million acres to show up in various categories, including up to 1 million each in corn and soybeans, and perhaps 2 million more in HRS wheat acreage and other northern Plains crops (sunflowers, dry beans, canola, etc).
The extra acres in the Intentions Report will mean further trouble for new crop futures, as the record early planting season we are experiencing so far will also pressure new crop futures. In ND, it's expected to be the earliest planting season on record, with many other states expecting the same situation. This early planting season is NOT because of a developing drought across the US, as most areas have excellent soil moisture conditions to start the year.
In fact, the 2011 drought impacted HRW wheat growing region has been fairly well 'cured' of the droughty weather, as it's rained since last October in that region, healing up the dry soil conditions from last year. In fact, it's gotten so wet that TX is actually behind normal planting of corn, in spite of well above normal temperatures. HRW wheat crop conditions have improved tremendously from last fall, with the winter wheat crop now expected to have above average yield potential - quite a turnaround from last year's drought impacted crop.
With early planting of corn, small grains, HRS wheat crops and nearly every other crop in the US, it's likely we will have above average yield potential right out of the gate in 2012. That's good news for US producers, who have suffered from poor growing season weather the past two years. That resulted in well below average yields in major crops the past two years, and is exactly why we are starting at very good price levels for the 2012 crop year.
Unfortunately, if you have not yet sold those price levels, you have seen corn and wheat prices slowly trickling lower the past few months on new crop prices. Old crop prices spiked higher with the SAM crop problems (especially soybeans), but even they have a limit with how high they can go.
http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/rept-to-impact-new-vs-old-crop_9-ar23214
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Pro Ag is very concerned there will be more 'found' acreage due to the large amount of prevented planted acreage last year (over 10 million acres) and the added 2-3 million acres of CRP/new breaking ground expected to come into production in the US.
Given trader expectations, Pro Ag expects another 4 million acres to show up in various categories, including up to 1 million each in corn and soybeans, and perhaps 2 million more in HRS wheat acreage and other northern Plains crops (sunflowers, dry beans, canola, etc).
The extra acres in the Intentions Report will mean further trouble for new crop futures, as the record early planting season we are experiencing so far will also pressure new crop futures. In ND, it's expected to be the earliest planting season on record, with many other states expecting the same situation. This early planting season is NOT because of a developing drought across the US, as most areas have excellent soil moisture conditions to start the year.
In fact, the 2011 drought impacted HRW wheat growing region has been fairly well 'cured' of the droughty weather, as it's rained since last October in that region, healing up the dry soil conditions from last year. In fact, it's gotten so wet that TX is actually behind normal planting of corn, in spite of well above normal temperatures. HRW wheat crop conditions have improved tremendously from last fall, with the winter wheat crop now expected to have above average yield potential - quite a turnaround from last year's drought impacted crop.
With early planting of corn, small grains, HRS wheat crops and nearly every other crop in the US, it's likely we will have above average yield potential right out of the gate in 2012. That's good news for US producers, who have suffered from poor growing season weather the past two years. That resulted in well below average yields in major crops the past two years, and is exactly why we are starting at very good price levels for the 2012 crop year.
Unfortunately, if you have not yet sold those price levels, you have seen corn and wheat prices slowly trickling lower the past few months on new crop prices. Old crop prices spiked higher with the SAM crop problems (especially soybeans), but even they have a limit with how high they can go.
http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/rept-to-impact-new-vs-old-crop_9-ar23214
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT
CORN: 95.9 mil. acres; trade expected 94.7 mil. acres
-- compares to 91.921 mil. acres in 2011
SOYBEANS: 73.9 mil. acres; traders expected 75.5 mil. acres
-- compares to 74.976 mil. acres in 2011
ALL WHEAT: 55.9 mil. acres; traders expected 57.6 mil. acres
-- compares to 54.409 mil. acres in 2011
SPRING WHEAT: 12.0 mil. acres; traders expected 13.4 mil. acres
-- compares to 12.394 mil. acres in 2011
DURUM WHEAT: 2.2 mil. acres; traders expected 2.3 mil. acres
-- compares to 1.369 mil. acres in 2011
COTTON: 13.2 mil. acres; traders expected 12.74 mil. acres
-- compares to 14.732 mil. acres in 2011
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2012/03/pre-open-corn_1023.html
Rumble Time!
CORN: 95.9 mil. acres; trade expected 94.7 mil. acres
-- compares to 91.921 mil. acres in 2011
SOYBEANS: 73.9 mil. acres; traders expected 75.5 mil. acres
-- compares to 74.976 mil. acres in 2011
ALL WHEAT: 55.9 mil. acres; traders expected 57.6 mil. acres
-- compares to 54.409 mil. acres in 2011
SPRING WHEAT: 12.0 mil. acres; traders expected 13.4 mil. acres
-- compares to 12.394 mil. acres in 2011
DURUM WHEAT: 2.2 mil. acres; traders expected 2.3 mil. acres
-- compares to 1.369 mil. acres in 2011
COTTON: 13.2 mil. acres; traders expected 12.74 mil. acres
-- compares to 14.732 mil. acres in 2011
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/ag/2012/03/pre-open-corn_1023.html
Rumble Time!
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