Every contract month is unique. Similarity means absolutely nothing in tradeable contracts. That isn't a technical statement, that is shear pattern recognition and that is akin to typical random assessment of charts especially if you are using daily, minute or tick charts.
Currently Dec 08 eCorn is ranging between $6.2875 and $5.0450. $6.2875 took out our last oscillation high at $6.2475 so there will be at least ONE MORE challenge of that $6.2875 price level (though not necessarily close) to confirm it or deny it as a top. One can not say "corn just topped" until that action as taken place. That's pure technical.
On a fundamental level the corn in the fields here locally are firing and have fired. That means they are DONE! FINISHED! KAPUT! Firing is caused by untimely lack of moisture. As soon as the firing took play potential yields drops by 15 to 20% in the area. Add that to the overestimated USDA amounts of acreage and we are seeing a good argument for at least $7 corn going into harvest if not a full challenge of the last top of $7.9925.
Regardless, the current range is critical. If we break below $5.0450 we will probably see your $4.5000 but IMHO we are more likely to see $7-$8.
We all wait and see and can only read the oscillations as they occur. Picking tops and bottoms without confirmation is suicide and I for one choose life over death.
