Prof- I've enjoyed reading some of your other posts, and I appreciate your point of view. Having said that, where would you suggest getting objective crop info, given your distrust of the USDA. Other than personal/anecdotal observation, what other RELIABLE info about these crops is available?
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Corn Crash!
- Thread starter simpleton
- Start date
Prof- I've enjoyed reading some of your other posts, and I appreciate your point of view. Having said that, where would you suggest getting objective crop info, given your distrust of the USDA. Other than personal/anecdotal observation, what other RELIABLE info about these crops is available?
Quote from simpleton:
What do you think of the estimates from Informa Economics?
Corn Crop Forecast Raised by Informa; Soybeans Cut (Update1)
2008-07-07 18:07:22.720 (New York)
(Adds yield forecast beginning in fourth paragraph and
cotton production estimate in the 12th paragraph.)
By Jeff Wilson
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. farmers will produce more corn
than the government forecast last month after rain revived
Midwest crops, according to Informa Economics Inc., which said
the soybean harvest will be smaller than projected.
Corn output will total 12.002 billion bushels, up 2.3
percent from the Department of Agriculture's June 10 forecast
of 11.735 billion bushels, Informa said in a report to clients.
The soybean harvest will be 3.019 billion bushels, down from
last month's USDA estimate of 3.105 billion, it said.
U.S. farmers harvested a record 13.1 billion bushels of
corn last year and 2.585 billion bushels of soybeans.
The average yield from an acre of corn will be 152
bushels, up from 148.9 bushels forecast by USDA June 10 and
151.1 bushels last year, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa said.
The company predicts 78.9 million acres will be harvested,
matching the USDA forecast from June 30, and down from 86.5
million harvested last year.
Soybeans will yield 41.9 bushels per acre, Informa said,
less than the USDA's forecast of 42.1 bushels last month while
more than 41.2 bushels per acre harvested a year ago. The
report was confirmed by Informa clients.
About the same as I do the USDA.
Yes the rain has improved "some" fields in the Midwest but a majority of them are water damaged. The season is still early too and so far we have been unseasonable cool.
The fields locally, which are considered some of the better areas here in the Midwest are wavy. This means that the corn varies between 6 feet tall and 1 foot tall in the same field. How do you harvest an entire field when only 25-40% of it is mature enough for market? And they are predicting yields to increase. I hope they take all of their kids college money and vacation in Vegas.
Next problem is that most farmers have replanted their fields as much as 5 times. The late plantings might not produce a crop at all or at best a low yield in those fields due to frost later in the season even though these areas are still counted in the USDA & Informa figures. Oh, so are all of the fields under water or covered in sewage and runoff.
Quote from Covert:
Prof- I've enjoyed reading some of your other posts, and I appreciate your point of view. Having said that, where would you suggest getting objective crop info, given your distrust of the USDA. Other than personal/anecdotal observation, what other RELIABLE info about these crops is available?
A couple of us are in the process of creating a network of already established local farmer organizations around the US. Our goal is to get weekly hands on feedback from these groups to create a patchwork of reliable information from the trenches not some paper idiot on a mission of disseminating misinformation. I was approached by a resident ETer a few months ago regarding doing a Newsletter for the Ag Markets and this network of farmer groups will be the information conduit.
Accurate Information about the Real Agriculture Markets from the Producers themselves.
I will keep this forum up to date of the progress and probably pull a sponsership to ET when finished.
heavy buying at the 7.00 level on dec corn. possibly short covering we shall see. I could care less this huge down move is really helping my aug/oct cattle spreads which got supremely out of whack by 8.00 corn.
they defended 7.00 very well. i had strong support at 6.50 range i moved it up now. 7.00 is a key level.
How much of the corn rally in recent months would you attribute to the Midwest flooding, ethanol demand increase (which is clearly correlated to oil prices), and just general food price inflation, respectively?
In my mind, the idea of ethanol as alternative fuel is pretty retarded and is not viable long term. Oil may be starting a bit of a correction - too early to tell anyway. The full effects of the floods are yet to be seen. Of course, inflation is a serious problem, but in the end it tends to correct itself when helped by higher borrowing costs and general drop in demand due to slowdown of the economy. Are the fundamentals really there to support even these corrected price levels?
In my mind, the idea of ethanol as alternative fuel is pretty retarded and is not viable long term. Oil may be starting a bit of a correction - too early to tell anyway. The full effects of the floods are yet to be seen. Of course, inflation is a serious problem, but in the end it tends to correct itself when helped by higher borrowing costs and general drop in demand due to slowdown of the economy. Are the fundamentals really there to support even these corrected price levels?
I think we will see new crop dec corn trade in the 575-700 range through harvest. Crop size is still decent regardless of flooding and ethanol plants are shutting down until the prices fall.
As far as what is responsible for what who knows. I think the ethanol mandates which i agree are short sighted account for much of the climb in corn prices.
As far as what is responsible for what who knows. I think the ethanol mandates which i agree are short sighted account for much of the climb in corn prices.
bulls are defending 7.00 again very well. 2 days in a row