You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Corn Crash!
- Thread starter simpleton
- Start date
Quote from ProfLogic:
THE bottom line to any commodity is "simple Supply verses Demand".
Supply wasn't accurately depicted this morning with the acreage report due to the omission of the flood damaged acreage. Supply IS decreasing.
Demand has increased and IS increasing, year over year.
You're arguement makes ZERO sense! OK, so the USDA report doesn't say how much of the crop was destroyed by the flooding, I get that. But why do you think corn went up by 27% in June? It wasn't because of the bigger supply/demand picture, I would say that the 70%+ gain for the year pretty much priced in a pretty dire supply scenario. And what about global corn supply? Bumper crops across major corn growing regions this year.
The title of this thread should be Corn Pullback, because there will be no Crash.
I was stopped out of the remainder of my long position at the open but I am in no way bearish on corn. I will be rebuilding a new long position and will see any further pullback in December corn as a screaming opportunity.
Some news tidbits...........
"The report is already obsolete," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst at commodities-information provider DTN. Many acres could be abandoned at a later date and the acreage situation will be worse than the report sounds, she said.
Corn yields are also expected to be hurt by the Midwest flooding, which by some estimates was the worst since 1993.
Shrinking acreage and falling yields could push 2009 year-end corn inventories to as low as 300 million bushels, down 80% from the previous year, Hackett projected. This will be the lowest inventory level the U.S. has seen since 1947.
The USDA, without fully considering the impact of flooding, projected in early June that corn year-end stocks would stand at 673 million bushels in 2009, down 53% from a year ago and the lowest in 13 years.
The acreage report on Monday is based on surveys the USDA did in the first two weeks of this month, before the majority of the flooding occurred, according to Dawn Keen, an economist at the USDA. Given that, it may not fully reflect the flooding damage.
In an effort to more accurately assess the damage, the USDA said more surveys will be conducted in July and the latest information will be included in its Aug. 12 crop production report.
Cool weather seen crimping corn crops
Massive flooding, despite its scale, isn't the only reason for reduced production. Cooler-than-normal weather is also hurting harvests.
'If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis ...'
â Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors
Temperatures in the Corn Belt, where Iowa, Illinois and other top corn producers are located, have averaged two to four degrees below normal in the past week, according to AccuWeather.com.
Cooler weather will push back corn's maturation date and potentially translate into a delayed harvest, according to Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. "This crop can't take additional setbacks, but instead needs ideal weather," he said.
Lower temperature and heavy flooding are likely to drive corn prices higher to $10-a-bushel level, Hackett said.
"If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis that would probably require some type of government intervention," said Hackett.
I was stopped out of the remainder of my long position at the open but I am in no way bearish on corn. I will be rebuilding a new long position and will see any further pullback in December corn as a screaming opportunity.
Some news tidbits...........
"The report is already obsolete," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst at commodities-information provider DTN. Many acres could be abandoned at a later date and the acreage situation will be worse than the report sounds, she said.
Corn yields are also expected to be hurt by the Midwest flooding, which by some estimates was the worst since 1993.
Shrinking acreage and falling yields could push 2009 year-end corn inventories to as low as 300 million bushels, down 80% from the previous year, Hackett projected. This will be the lowest inventory level the U.S. has seen since 1947.
The USDA, without fully considering the impact of flooding, projected in early June that corn year-end stocks would stand at 673 million bushels in 2009, down 53% from a year ago and the lowest in 13 years.
The acreage report on Monday is based on surveys the USDA did in the first two weeks of this month, before the majority of the flooding occurred, according to Dawn Keen, an economist at the USDA. Given that, it may not fully reflect the flooding damage.
In an effort to more accurately assess the damage, the USDA said more surveys will be conducted in July and the latest information will be included in its Aug. 12 crop production report.
Cool weather seen crimping corn crops
Massive flooding, despite its scale, isn't the only reason for reduced production. Cooler-than-normal weather is also hurting harvests.
'If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis ...'
â Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors
Temperatures in the Corn Belt, where Iowa, Illinois and other top corn producers are located, have averaged two to four degrees below normal in the past week, according to AccuWeather.com.
Cooler weather will push back corn's maturation date and potentially translate into a delayed harvest, according to Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. "This crop can't take additional setbacks, but instead needs ideal weather," he said.
Lower temperature and heavy flooding are likely to drive corn prices higher to $10-a-bushel level, Hackett said.
"If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis that would probably require some type of government intervention," said Hackett.
Quote from simpleton:
And what about global corn supply? Bumper crops across major corn growing regions this year.
Really?
When was the last time you were in China to have a first hand view of their "bumper crop"?
When was the last time you were in Australia to have a first hand view of their "bumper crop"?
When was the last time you were in Brazil to have a first hand view of their "bumper crop"?
I was in China and Australia a few weeks ago and I have an associate in South America now. Brazil is the only region experiencing above average potentials. I don't rely on the media for my information. They usually get their information from government sources and they lie.
I do agree with you that the overall increase in the percentage of grain prices might be way over priced but we look at these markets differently. I think you view the markets from the fundimentals first and then sprinkle in some technicals. I am a chartist first and foremost and then use the fundimentals to fuel the direction that the individual chart months are confirming.
We look at the markets differently but as long profit is the ultimate outcome . . . who cares.
Quote from ess1096:
The title of this thread should be Corn Pullback, because there will be no Crash.
I was stopped out of the remainder of my long position at the open but I am in no way bearish on corn. I will be rebuilding a new long position and will see any further pullback in December corn as a screaming opportunity.
Some news tidbits...........
"The report is already obsolete," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst at commodities-information provider DTN. Many acres could be abandoned at a later date and the acreage situation will be worse than the report sounds, she said.
Corn yields are also expected to be hurt by the Midwest flooding, which by some estimates was the worst since 1993.
Shrinking acreage and falling yields could push 2009 year-end corn inventories to as low as 300 million bushels, down 80% from the previous year, Hackett projected. This will be the lowest inventory level the U.S. has seen since 1947.
The USDA, without fully considering the impact of flooding, projected in early June that corn year-end stocks would stand at 673 million bushels in 2009, down 53% from a year ago and the lowest in 13 years.
The acreage report on Monday is based on surveys the USDA did in the first two weeks of this month, before the majority of the flooding occurred, according to Dawn Keen, an economist at the USDA. Given that, it may not fully reflect the flooding damage.
In an effort to more accurately assess the damage, the USDA said more surveys will be conducted in July and the latest information will be included in its Aug. 12 crop production report.
Cool weather seen crimping corn crops
Massive flooding, despite its scale, isn't the only reason for reduced production. Cooler-than-normal weather is also hurting harvests.
'If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis ...'
â Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors
Temperatures in the Corn Belt, where Iowa, Illinois and other top corn producers are located, have averaged two to four degrees below normal in the past week, according to AccuWeather.com.
Cooler weather will push back corn's maturation date and potentially translate into a delayed harvest, according to Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. "This crop can't take additional setbacks, but instead needs ideal weather," he said.
Lower temperature and heavy flooding are likely to drive corn prices higher to $10-a-bushel level, Hackett said.
"If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis that would probably require some type of government intervention," said Hackett.
Exactly!!
Quote from ess1096:
"The report is already obsolete," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst at commodities-information provider DTN.
Lower temperature and heavy flooding are likely to drive corn prices higher to $10-a-bushel level, Hackett said.
"If bad weather is seen in the July-August timeframe, then we would be talking about a corn supply crisis that would probably require some type of government intervention," said Hackett.
$10 corn should pretty much kill demand and exports and push whatever ethanol plants are left over the edge.
Quote from Bingoking:
$10 corn should pretty much kill demand and exports and push whatever ethanol plants are left over the edge.
I personally think $10 Corn is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back IF it gets that high. We will see people putting the wagons in a circle at that point I believe.