Corn Crash!

From NYTimes.com


U.S. May Free Up More Land for Corn Crops
Saturday June 21, 7:35 pm ET
By DAVID STREITFELD

CHICAGO — Signs are growing that the government may allow farmers to plant crops on millions of acres of conservation land, while a chorus of voices is also pleading with Washington to cut requirements for ethanol production.
The Midwest floods have washed out an estimated four million acres of prime farmland, crimping this year’s harvest as the world desperately needs more grain. With corn prices setting records and soybean prices not far behind, the Bush administration is under intense pressure to do what it can to bolster the food supply.

Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and one of Capitol Hill’s main voices on farm policy, on Friday urged the Agriculture Department to release tens of thousands of farmers from contracts under which they had promised to set aside huge tracts as natural habitat.

“This is an extraordinary request,” Mr. Grassley said in a telephone interview as he toured his devastated state. “I would not make it if the situation in the Midwest were not so dire.”
 
For 'reasons' why corn is down this morning:

Corn Falls for Third Day on Informa Forecast, Dry U.S. Weather
2008-06-23 00:34 (New York)


By Jae Hur
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Corn fell for a third day on an
increased U.S. corn planting forecast by Informa Economics and on
speculation that warm, dry weather will help crops revive after
the worst floods since 1993 in the Midwest.
Corn will be planted on 87.399 million acres, down from a
63-year high of 93.6 million acres in 2007, Memphis, Tennessee-
based Informa Economics said June 20 in a report after surveying
farmers and clients in late May and early June, before rains
flooded Midwest fields. The estimate was up from Informa's May
forecast of 87.174 million acres.
``Together with forecasts for warmer, drier weather in the
Midwest, Informa's report has stoked selling in corn,'' Hiroyuki
Kikukawa, general manager of the research department at IDO
Securities Co., said today from Tokyo. ``In the coming days, we
don't expect any worse reports by the U.S. government on crops
until it has a clear picture on the flood damage.''
Corn for December delivery dropped as much as 17.5 cents, or
2.3 percent, to $7.38 a bushel, the lowest since June 13, in
after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and stood at
$7.465 as of 11:46 a.m. Singapore time.
The most active contract has doubled in the past year,
reaching a record $7.915 a bushel on June 16, on increased demand
for livestock feed and grain-based alternative fuel.
Soybeans for November delivery declined as much as 18.5
cents, or 1.2 percent, to $14.905 a bushel and traded at $14.99
as of 11:52 a.m. Singapore time. Most-active futures have risen
86 percent in the past year, reaching a record $15.865 on March 3.

Forecast Update

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in March that U.S.
farmers would reduce corn planting by 8.1 percent to 86 million
acres and boost soybeans 18 percent to 74.793 million acres. The
government will update its forecasts on June 30 and will conduct
a special survey in July to assess the impact of Midwest flooding.
About 57 percent of the corn crop was in good or excellent
condition as of June 15, down from 60 percent a week earlier, and
70 percent a year earlier, the USDA said last week. About 56
percent of the soybeans got the top ratings, compared with 57
percent a week earlier and 65 percent a year earlier.
An estimated 4.3 million acres of corn plants had yet to
emerge from the soil, and about 12 million acres of soybeans had
yet to be planted as of June 15 in the top 18 producing states
because of wet soil and cool temperatures, the government said.
Soybeans will be planted on 73.268 million acres, up from
63.631 million acres last year, Informa said June 20. The latest
forecast is lower than the 73.333 million forecast in May.
``Informa's report on soybeans is a bullish one, but an
improved prospect for ending a farm dispute in Argentina has
dragged the market lower, together with the favorable crop
weather outlook in the Midwest,'' Kikukawa said.

Argentine Protests

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will meet
with the leaders of the country's four biggest agricultural
associations to help end three months of protests against a new
export-tax system, La Nacion reported yesterday.
Argentine farmers have led a 103-day strike, which included
roadblocks and a halt on agricultural exports, since a variable
tax on grain and oilseed exports was introduced in March, La
Nacion said. Fernandez agreed to re-start direct talks with farm
leaders after their supporters and striking truck drivers lifted
their roadblocks June 20, the newspaper said.
Wheat for September delivery fell as much as 19.25 cents, or
2.2 percent, to $8.65 a bushel, the lowest since June 13, and
traded at $8.75 as of 11:49 a.m. Singapore time, losing for a
third day.
The grain is still down 35 percent from a record $13.495 on
Feb. 27 on speculation that global stockpiles will increase as
farmers planted more to take advantage of higher prices.
Rice for September delivery was up 21 cents at $19.62 per
100 pounds at 11:20 a.m. Singapore time, gaining for a second day.
Rice reached a record $25.07 on April 24 after some exporters
curbed exports to ensure local supplies.
 
Quote from simpleton:

For 'reasons' why corn is down this morning:

Corn Falls for Third Day on Informa Forecast, Dry U.S. Weather
2008-06-23 00:34 (New York)
More...

For those of us that have had dealing with the USDA on a one-on-one basis and know them and their familiars to be liars and scoundrels, anything they put out in the media is suspect at best.

I know people will hang on every word that comes out of their mouths until those words hang the people.

Trade the news my friend if you want but always treat it with a grain of salt.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

For those of us that have had dealing with the USDA on a one-on-one basis and know them and their familiars to be liars and scoundrels, anything they put out in the media is suspect at best.

I know people will hang on every word that comes out of their mouths until those words hang the people.

Trade the news my friend if you want but always treat it with a grain of salt.
More...

Great point!
I can't believe there are people out there that think the sun will come out this week, dry up all the water and everything will back to normal in a day.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:



Trade the news my friend if you want but always treat it with a grain of salt.
More...

Are you directing this to me? If so, you should understand that I don't trade the news. And if I did, why would I ignore last week's news of severe rain and floods but then trade this news of drier weather? I merely posted this to show that on any given day, there can and will be 'news' to account for the price movement for those that need more than price to justify their trade.
 
Quote from simpleton:

Are you directing this to me? If so, you should understand that I don't trade the news. And if I did, why would I ignore last week's news of severe rain and floods but then trade this news of drier weather? I merely posted this to show that on any given day, there can and will be 'news' to account for the price movement for those that need more than price to justify their trade.
More...

Valid pont.
 
Quote from simpleton:

there can and will be 'news' to account for the price movement for those that need more than price to justify their trade.
More...


As a technical trader who trades off the charts I find that markets usually make significant moves and that causes the "news media" to search for a reason why it moved and then report on it. In other words I think the charts lead the media as opposed to the other way around. If anyone waits to read news for a trade they have already missed the trade.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127817
 
Quote from ess1096:

As a technical trader who trades off the charts I find that markets usually make significant moves and that causes the "news media" to search for a reason why it moved and then report on it. In other words I think the charts lead the media as opposed to the other way around. If anyone waits to read news for a trade they have already missed the trade.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127817
More...

Well stated.
I've always stated that "News fuels a market it never drives it".
 
Quote from ess1096:

As a technical trader who trades off the charts I find that markets usually make significant moves and that causes the "news media" to search for a reason why it moved and then report on it. In other words I think the charts lead the media as opposed to the other way around. If anyone waits to read news for a trade they have already missed the trade.

More...

I completely agree. What really gets me is when the market is up, they'll quote all the bulls but then on a down day, they quote the bears. That really bugs me.
 
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