Prof you are right as usual my friend. Hope all is well, I haven't been trading very much lately and it feels great to get a break and enjoy life a little! smell the roses ha ha. Happy trading!
Corn Crash!
- Thread starter simpleton
- Start date
Prof you are right as usual my friend. Hope all is well, I haven't been trading very much lately and it feels great to get a break and enjoy life a little! smell the roses ha ha. Happy trading!
Here in westcentral iowa we have a picture perfect corn crop (probably the best I have ever witnessed on our farm). However our bean crop is less than desirable.
Most of the beans that got in were extremely late and any replants are not gonna make it or are going to be extremely short in yield. An early freeze would be absolutely terrible for the bean crop especially this year.
Technically I think corn could pop up to around 660 in dec before another leg down occurs. We have seen some commercial buying come in around that 560 level. I mean you think about it and these commercial players were used to seeing 7 corn and now when it dropped around 2 bucks they are taking advantage of it.
Technically beans look like they are in a pivitol point right now. If we can break below today's low (whatever that will be) I think we will hit 13 very quickly then 1250 or so which is the 200 day ma. However if we can't break today's low then we could go back to 14.75 before heading back down.
Lot of money being made and lost in the grains now
Most of the beans that got in were extremely late and any replants are not gonna make it or are going to be extremely short in yield. An early freeze would be absolutely terrible for the bean crop especially this year.
Technically I think corn could pop up to around 660 in dec before another leg down occurs. We have seen some commercial buying come in around that 560 level. I mean you think about it and these commercial players were used to seeing 7 corn and now when it dropped around 2 bucks they are taking advantage of it.
Technically beans look like they are in a pivitol point right now. If we can break below today's low (whatever that will be) I think we will hit 13 very quickly then 1250 or so which is the 200 day ma. However if we can't break today's low then we could go back to 14.75 before heading back down.
Lot of money being made and lost in the grains now
Corn here locally is beautiful in some fields (those that were planted early) but in most it is wavy and irratic.
Beans plants are small but healthy in about 60% of the fields but the other 40% are really crappy.
I still have a problem with corn and ethanol because of the ethanil plants up and running here locally they ARE running and barely have enough product for production. Regardless of production that should drive price back up a ways but how far is anyones guess.
QUOTE:::I still have a problem with corn and ethanol because of the ethanil plants up and running here locally they ARE running and barely have enough product for production::::UNQUOTE
Prof, what is the problem you have with the Ethanol Plants? Personally I think they are great for the farm community and a good temporary step towards more sophisticated biofuels. The effect on world food prices is minimal , IMO
Prof, what is the problem you have with the Ethanol Plants? Personally I think they are great for the farm community and a good temporary step towards more sophisticated biofuels. The effect on world food prices is minimal , IMO
I'm an efficiency expert from another career and there is absolutely nothing efficient about corn based ethanol.
1st - There are many other plant types that can be used instead of corn that produces more energy per acre than corn. (Molasses, Sugar, Sorghum, Hemp among others are all more efficient than corn.)
2nd - Corn Ethanol is less efficient than gasoline so adding ethanol to gasoline wipes out the cost effectiveness of using it in the first place. Convert engines to run on 100% ethanol would be a better alternative initially but doesn't solve the problem for the long term which is clean energy.
2nd - Ethanol production is not something you want around YOUR home. I live in the country and love the "sweet country air". Some of the city slickers out there might think "farms" stink but to me that is the smell of money. I don't live around any animal facilities though so that particular smell I don't have to deal with.
What stinks is having a 50 foot 180,000 sq. ft. factory a few miles from your home pumping out 180,000 gallons of hot run off water and stink per day into one of the most natural lakes in the world disrupting the habitat for no efficient reason but to make the investor a profit. Ethanol ISN'T great for farm communities. Few jobs are created and the pollution far outweighs the benefits. Ethanol is NOT a sophisticated biofuel; it is an inefficient band-aid solution to a larger problem our government and most individuals ignore on an ongoing basis.3rd - Building an ethanol plant where there isn't enough corn grown to maintain its operation by itself is stupid. If product needs to be shipped in, efficiency diminishes again. Ethanol plants are being built because our ignorant government is subsidizing their profitability. The owners of these plants are guaranteed to make money IF they are completed and in production because our ignorant government will buy all they produce. Ethanol is about profit not an efficient fuel alternative.
Collective SOLUTION:
If each person that is ABLE to efficiently convert their personal environment to a more self sufficient energy situation, all of our overall problems would subside within 15 years. Most of my neighbors are installing wind generators, solar panels and geothermal heating and cooling systems as a way to take them "off the grid". If more of us did this, collectively we could make a huge difference. The reality is that it won't happen in our lifetime. People, for the most part, are lazy by nature. They take the attitude of, "someone else will solve the problem" or "it's not my problem".
I know of a gentleman in LA that lives in an apartment and is totally off the grid. All of his electricity needs he creates himself and did it for less than a few hundred dollars of used equipment he got off eBay.
I know this isn't specifically related to ethanol but our overall dependency to oil will lesson as our overall energy usage lessons. It's a domino effect that is a long time in coming and MUST start immediately.
I live IN farm country . . . I talk to farmers daily . . . farmers do not want ethanol . . . investors do. Farmers just want market stability and a way to consistently make fair profits from their hard work. Food for fuel is not the direction they know is a long term solution.
An interesting side note since the ethanol mandates is the coorelation between corn and crude that has developed because of the food as energy policies. I wonder is much of the disruption in the traditional wheat and corn spread mentioned elsewhere in the forums has its culprit with ethanol?
Prof: Thanks for taking the time to relay your thoughts. I always learn something from your many contributions to this site.
My thoughts:
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Sorry for my taking this offtrack from why corn crashed ( that is til today).
FYG - I went against my rules ystdy, chased the mkt and bot 2 cts of the CZ/WZ spread at -2.21 to earn back a little of my $5K loss
My thoughts:
Quote from ProfLogic:
I'm an efficiency expert from another career and there is absolutely nothing efficient about corn based ethanol.
******I don't think corn Ethanol was ever expected to be more efficient or replace gasoline. To me it is just a very, very tiny first stepping stone to more viable technologies.
1st - There are many other plant types that can be used instead of corn that produces more energy per acre than corn. (Molasses, Sugar, Sorghum, Hemp among others are all more efficient than corn.)
******Agreed, for sugar based ethanol you get 9 units of energy out for very unit in compared to corn where you get 1.3 out for every 1 in (so far)
2nd - Corn Ethanol is less efficient than gasoline so adding ethanol to gasoline wipes out the cost effectiveness of using it in the first place. Convert engines to run on 100% ethanol would be a better alternative initially but doesn't solve the problem for the long term which is clean energy.
******Agreed - although it increases octane, overall efficiency is about 30% less...about the same spread as price. However, consequent air pollution is a lot less.
2nd - Ethanol production is not something you want around YOUR home. I live in the country and love the "sweet country air". Some of the city slickers out there might think "farms" stink but to me that is the smell of money. I don't live around any animal facilities though so that particular smell I don't have to deal with.
******Ethanol is not about job creation. And agreed that it is close to the most unsophisticated of energy technologies. But again, at least its a first step to hopefully a future of efficient, clean, abundant and easily accessible energy. What else have we done since the crises during the seventies?
3rd - Building an ethanol plant where there isn't enough corn grown to maintain its operation by itself is stupid. If product needs to be shipped in, efficiency diminishes again. Ethanol plants are being built because our ignorant government is subsidizing their profitability. The owners of these plants are guaranteed to make money IF they are completed and in production because our ignorant government will buy all they produce. Ethanol is about profit not an efficient fuel alternative.
******agree that these new destination plants exist only due to greed for gov't incentives and I think will all fail. However, as you hinted, if its built in the middle of the cornfield itself, it will survive and probably without subsidies. Many of this plants are becoming very innovative and pushing to build efficiencies.
Collective SOLUTION:
If each person that is ABLE to efficiently convert their personal environment to a more self sufficient energy situation, all of our overall problems would subside within 15 years. Most of my neighbors are installing wind generators, solar panels and geothermal heating and cooling systems as a way to take them "off the grid". If more of us did this, collectively we could make a huge difference. The reality is that it won't happen in our lifetime. People, for the most part, are lazy by nature. They take the attitude of, "someone else will solve the problem" or "it's not my problem".
I know of a gentleman in LA that lives in an apartment and is totally off the grid. All of his electricity needs he creates himself and did it for less than a few hundred dollars of used equipment he got off eBay.
******In order for progress in almost any field I think we need abundant, non- centralized, easily accessible, clean, efficient etc. etc. energy to help make every aspect of life easier, healthier and so forth. I think by sacrificing to reduce demand (energy usage) in order to take oil back down to $40 will again delay new developments and insure another energy (and food) crises in the future. FGOS - I do not consider myself lazy and I feel it is very much all of our problem. I want my grandkids to enjoy the fruits of cheap energy as I did.
I know this isn't specifically related to ethanol but our overall dependency to oil will lesson as our overall energy usage lessons. It's a domino effect that is a long time in coming and MUST start immediately.
I live IN farm country . . . I talk to farmers daily . . . farmers do not want ethanol . . . investors do. Farmers just want market stability and a way to consistently make fair profits from their hard work. Food for fuel is not the direction they know is a long term solution.
************************
Sorry for my taking this offtrack from why corn crashed ( that is til today).
FYG - I went against my rules ystdy, chased the mkt and bot 2 cts of the CZ/WZ spread at -2.21 to earn back a little of my $5K loss
ProfLogic for president!!!