Corbyn as PM - price target for Sterling?

[pinetboltz]

Between them they might make the UK another Venezuela.
...
Johnson would do less damage.

lol, if GBP depreciates a lot in that instance perhaps there'll be even more interest from property buyers from overseas.

in the US there's a saying how real estate prices in New York and Boston are pretty much insulated for the most part against downturns (maybe a 5-10% drawdown, but still)

i think with any further weakness in the pound, it could make real estate even more appealing for foreign buyers in prime London - already some of those apartments are looking like good buys compared to what you get in North America, and it's hard to imagine that London ever becomes less important of a city than say, Boston or Chicago, regardless of the actual Brexit terms/ not to mention if another referendum takes place and ppl decide to reverse course

 

[pipeguy]

with it being an increasing probability that Corbyn could become PM, what's your price target on GBPUSD? interested to hear everyone's views

my inclination is it might retest the support from 2016

0 probability of this event. At least after the confidence vote which supported May second time.

 

[pinetboltz]

0 probability of this event. At least after the confidence vote which supported May second time.

don't say never, the odds at the bookmakers have put Corbyn #1 on the list of PM contenders https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

 

[Sig]

Difficult choice as neither is suited to such a job, so its a question as to which would do least damage. Corbyn is an ideologically driven Marxist-Leninist which makes him dangerous to the UK economy but he is older so probably would only be in No.10 for 1 five-year term (or less). That is good but he might stand aside in favour of John McDonnell, a younger and perhaps more vehement communist. Between them they might make the UK another Venezuela.

Johnson is no state leader and will make a mess of the job, so he might be forced to resign by his party or voted out by the country. He is also not ideologically driven and has shown some business-friendly instincts. He is younger and has his own broad public appeal, so he could serve for two terms if circumstances are kind to him. He could do considerable damage over that sort of time period and how badly he might mess up is hard to say but at least if he brings the country to its knees it would be by accident, not revolutionary design.

Johnson would do less damage.

A correllary of Godwin's law seems to be that as any political discussion involving conservatives and economics grows longer the chance of "turning into the next Venezuela" being invoked approaches 1 at which point the person invoking it has lost the argument.

 

[tomorton]

A correllary of Godwin's law seems to be that as any political discussion involving conservatives and economics grows longer the chance of "turning into the next Venezuela" being invoked approaches 1 at which point the person invoking it has lost the argument.

Nevertheless, its still true to say that Corbyn is an ideologically driven Marxist-Leninist which makes him dangerous to the UK economy but he is older so probably would only be in No.10 for 1 five-year term (or less). That is good but he might stand aside in favour of John McDonnell, a younger and perhaps more vehement communist.

 

[pipeguy]

Pound rose above 1.30, any thoughts why it happened?

 

[Sig]

Pound rose above 1.30, any thoughts why it happened?

I'll venture a guess, the chance of a revote on Brexit has gone up in conjunction with the GBP going up, and a re-vote means a pretty good chance Brexit doesn't happen. A look at the long-term chart of GBP vs Brexit shows a clear negative correlation between the chances of Brexit happening and the GBP's strength. Ironic, given the hyperbole about communists and Venezuela and all that. Especially ironic given that a hallmark of Venezuela's failed economy is their rapidly falling currency, sound familiar?

 

[gerwinjohn]

PLease PLease NO!

 

[tomorton]

I'll venture a guess, the chance of a revote on Brexit has gone up in conjunction with the GBP going up, and a re-vote means a pretty good chance Brexit doesn't happen. A look at the long-term chart of GBP vs Brexit shows a clear negative correlation between the chances of Brexit happening and the GBP's strength. Ironic, given the hyperbole about communists and Venezuela and all that. Especially ironic given that a hallmark of Venezuela's failed economy is their rapidly falling currency, sound familiar?

Parliamentary disagreement increases the probability of a second referendum. This makes No-Brexit more possible, as neither major party is willing to commit itself to defying the 2016 referendum result. But a second referendum also makes an extension to Article 50 more probable, which in turn makes a more favourable revised Brexit deal more probable.

If Parliamentary support is not forthcoming before 29/03, I can't believe the PM would allow a no-deal Brexit to occur without a second referendum to give her specific authority on this (i.e. allow her to avoid the blame). She is no risk taker.

 

[pipeguy]

I guess Pound rallies because parties started to make progress in negotiations, May gradually gains support from other parties, because she made some concessions.