Cooltraderdude's TopstepTrader Combine (daily trade report and journal)

NDJeff02 · Sep 28, 2012

The way I like to think about trading is by taking the same mentality that a basketball player would to his game. You can't just pick up a basketball and have a goal of scoring 30 points in a game. What you need to do is practice and focus on your mechanics and fundamentals and if you score 30 then that is a byproduct of the process.

What I think Mav is trying to say is that if you focus on the process and the development, much like a basketball player does in practice, then the money will flow from there and you can have long-term success.

CoolTraderDude · Sep 28, 2012

OK... I'm back... Disregard previous example...

We're looking at mutually exclusive events by the law of union of probabilities...

so that's...

Let's do -.1 from 5/10 or 1/2 to get... 4.9/10 to account for the loss due to commission...

So the probability of getting a winning trade increases with every trade to where it is more than certain... BUT... this is deceptive due to the fact that your actual chance hasn't changed...

Over 10 trades this is...

4.9/10+4.9/10+4.9/10... 490/10 = 49/1 BUT on every trade your chance is still 4.9/10... At least in this example.

Law of Total Probability

"In probability theory, the law (or formula) of total probability is a fundamental rule relating marginal probabilities to conditional probabilities."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_probability

Total probability can't be applied here because we're not doing conditional probability... That is... We're not measuring... what the total probability of getting a winning trade is if we get a previous winning trade.

Maverick74 · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from NDJeff02:

The way I like to think about trading is by taking the same mentality that a basketball player would to his game. You can't just pick up a basketball and have a goal of scoring 30 points in a game. What you need to do is practice and focus on your mechanics and fundamentals and if you score 30 then that is a byproduct of the process.

What I think Mav is trying to say is that if you focus on the process and the development, much like a basketball player does in practice, then the money will flow from there and you can have long-term success.

Exactly. For awhile there, I thought I was talking to myself. Thanks Jeff.

CoolTraderDude · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from NDJeff02:

The way I like to think about trading is by taking the same mentality that a basketball player would to his game. You can't just pick up a basketball and have a goal of scoring 30 points in a game. What you need to do is practice and focus on your mechanics and fundamentals and if you score 30 then that is a byproduct of the process.

What I think Mav is trying to say is that if you focus on the process and the development, much like a basketball player does in practice, then the money will flow from there and you can have long-term success.

You guys don't get it...

Basketball has boundaries and rules... trading doesn't except that the game is over when a security goes to zero...

It's actually worse than a coin flip because of the fact that coin flips have set payouts...

Trading doesn't... If you get a trade right it doesn't actually mean that you can get the 1:1 payout that you would on a coinflip... It's open ended which makes it completely unpredictable. You can make 3 times as much or roll back down to a stop loss.

ammo · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from CoolTraderDude:

You guys don't get it...

Basketball has boundaries and rules... trading doesn't except that the game is over when a security goes to zero...

It's actually worse than a coin flip because of the fact that coin flips have set payouts...

Trading doesn't... If you get a trade right it doesn't actually mean that you can get the 1:1 payout that you would on a coinflip... It's open ended which makes it completely unpredictable. You can make 3 times as much or roll back down to a stop loss.

every game has it's rules , trading within topsteps rules is where you have to adjust,the loss limit is a tight leash and as a funding company to the unknown,passing this test reduces their odds of funding a losing trader,adhering to these rules until they get to know you is a beginners step to a future,they don't make it easy and they are looking for a low risk trader,that's not to say your viewpoint is wrong, it just needs to adapt to theirs if you want to pass the combine,if that's anyone's wish,practice under those rules until you have it down. then join the combine

Soon2Bgreat · Sep 28, 2012

m2c - Basketball's a decent analogy. Shots are like trades. Driving to the lane for a layup is a risk/return. You're trading the chance of getting fouled, blocked, turnover for a chance at getting close to the basket. Everyone wants to be able to shoot from 1ft away, and everyone will try to stop you - for you to be successful you need to figure out a way to take that shot and succeed more often than not.

...or, like in trading, you can choose a different strategy. Maybe you work on your three pointers instead, or you work on being the first guy down the floor for fast break chances, or not, maybe you decide you should be a coach. Each strategy though has a commensurate reward for the risk. You get really good by capturing that premium without the normal downside...and then you become the poster boy for Nike and buy the Bobcats.

dv4632 · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from NDJeff02:

The way I like to think about trading is by taking the same mentality that a basketball player would to his game. You can't just pick up a basketball and have a goal of scoring 30 points in a game. What you need to do is practice and focus on your mechanics and fundamentals and if you score 30 then that is a byproduct of the process.

What I think Mav is trying to say is that if you focus on the process and the development, much like a basketball player does in practice, then the money will flow from there and you can have long-term success.

Yeah, TST even says somewhere that scouting criteria is subjective and that some who pass the combine may be asked to repeat it. So if you're gambling and get lucky and put up great numbers... you're obviously not going to get funded. You've got to be a solid trader.

nazzdack · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from dv4632:
----scouting criteria is subjective....
----gambling....
----solid trader.

1) How do you objectively distinguish between "gambling" and "solid trading"?

2) The firm needs to have a "bias" towards funding people than not in order to maintain confidence among those in the combine.

dv4632 · Sep 28, 2012

I don't know how they'd make that distinction, but when I read that passing the combine does not necessarily guarantee funding I figured that had to be as a security measure to protect themselves from potentially funding someone they weren't comfortable with.

wolfpacker · Sep 28, 2012

Quote from Maverick74:

No, the goal is not to get funded. The goal is to become a consistently profitable trader. Getting funded is a byproduct of that. You are going about this the wrong way. What good is it if you get funded and can't trade? Have you thought "that" through? As far as negative sum, yes you have 10 days, so treat every day as a trade. The point is not whether or not you make 1 trade or 5k. The point is, the fewer trades you make with negative edge, the better. And certainly the more trades you make with negative only increases your chance of ruin. You are probably the reason why most guys who get lucky and pass the combine end up being sent right back down. Because they are not trying to become a consistently profitable trader, they are trying to win a stupid combine.

+1,000,0000

Wolf