Cook Political Report says no guarantee Republicans re-take the House

G

gwb-trading

Not only the Senate is slipping away in the mid-terms, but the House as well.

Cook Report: GOP control of the House no longer "foregone conclusion"
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/cook-report-gop-control-of-the-house-no-longer-foregone-conclusion

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter says a Republican takeover of the House is "no longer a foregone conclusion," as concern over protecting abortion rights fuels Democratic voter engagement and lower gas prices ease the party's deficit with independent voters.

Driving the news: The publication’s House editor Dave Wasserman on Thursday moved the ratings of five more House seats in Democrats’ direction.
  • The rating changes include the Alaska House seat that Democrat Mary Peltola won in a special election over Trump-backed Republican Sarah Palin. Wasserman rates the Alaska seat a "toss-up" for November.
  • Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, representing a bellwether suburban district that backed President Biden by 6 points, is now rated as the favorite to win re-election against Republican Yesli Vega. "Vega's Todd Akin-like 'hot mic' comments about the likelihood of pregnancy following rape are a godsend to Spanberger," Wasserman writes.
  • Wasserman also points out that "Republican primaries pulling candidates to the right" have been a factor in the improved forecast for Democrats.
Why it matters: While Republicans are still favored to win back a House majority, it's now likelier their margins will be narrower than once expected. And the fact that there's now a path for Democrats to hold their majority, however narrow, is a sea change from expectations just a couple of months ago.

Zoom out: A new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone, shows clear Democratic momentum over the summer.
  • Democrats now hold a 3-point edge (47%-44%) on the generic congressional ballot, a significant swing since the pollsters' March 2022 survey. Back then, Republicans held a 5-point advantage.
  • Among political independents, more voters now favor a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican (38%-35%). In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points.
  • President Biden's job approval rating has jumped to 45%, a 4-point bounce since March. He would comfortably defeat former President Trump in a 2024 rematch, 50%-44%. In March, the two candidates were tied.
But, but, but: There are still plenty of warning signs for overconfident Democrats. Only 23% of respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, and 35% have a favorable view of the economy. Republicans hold a 12-point advantage over Democrats on who's better to get inflation under control.
  • And another Fabrizio and Anzalone poll of Nevada voters (commissioned by AARP) shows Democrats in rough shape. The Nevada survey finds Biden with just a 40% job approval rating, while Democratic incumbents for governor and Senate are statistically tied with their GOP challengers.
The bottom line: Democrats are in the best political position they've been in all year. But campaigns are just beginning to ramp up after the Labor Day weekend, and the party in power is typically more vulnerable to a fickle American electorate.
 
joe-biden-pointing.gif
 
No matter how wide a majority is scored for the Repubs, the DemoCrap "cheat machine" will simply be ramped up enough to offset it.

:)
 
A funny thing happened on the way to the midterms
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/3622701-a-funny-thing-happened-on-the-way-to-the-midterms/

Remember how promising things looked for Republicans when summer was arriving? Remember how confident they were about the red wave that was supposed to wipe out Democrats in this fall’s midterms? They even threw in the word “tsunami” to make sure everyone knew what level of catastrophe was awaiting those woke lefties. Well, summer is now on the way out and a new reality is on the way in. Republicans aren’t feeling all that spunky anymore.

Even a column in the conservative Washington Examiner is asking, “Is the red wave already crashing?” Under that headline we get a political reality check: “The mood has shifted among Republicans over the past several weeks, from a sense of unbridled optimism to one of sober reflection about their chances for victory.”

So, if we’re to believe what passes for the prevailing wisdom, Democratic prospects for November have been miraculously resurrected. And, yes, it’s true that President Biden’s poll numbers have gone up recently — from abysmal to merely lousy.

And so, to what should we attribute this revival of Democratic fortunes (if that’s what it really is)? Well, there’s the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade in June, which we’re led to believe has fired up the enthusiasm of a lot of women voters.

When summer began, gasoline prices were heading north and Republicans were falling over each other trying to get in front of a TV camera to let everyone know it was all the fault of anti-fossil fuel Democrats. Now gasoline prices at the pump, while still historically high, are coming down — good news for the American consumer, but not so good for Republican politicians.

And there have been some legislative victories for the Democrats — laws that were designed to reduce gun violence and supposedly deal with both climate change and inflation at the same time. Going into the summer, Democratic voters were — let’s call it — underwhelmed. Now, who knows, they actually may be energized. The enthusiasm gap that was a chasm a few months ago may be shrinking as we approach fall.

And then, of course, there’s the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats: Donald Trump. He endorsed a slew of rookie (and some would say, less than scintillating) GOP Senate candidates in key battleground states who aren’t doing all that well at the moment. According to polls, they’re trailing in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and barely ahead in Georgia and Ohio, a state that has gone reliably red in recent years.

So now, with the midterms just two months away, you could make a case that it’s not looking especially good for Republicans to take over the Senate — and even the apparent rock-solid lead the GOP had in House races at the beginning of summer isn’t looking so rock-solid now that summer is waning.

For all this, the Democrats should send Donald Trump flowers and a gift basket filled with all sorts of goodies. If there ever has been another defeated U.S. president who has put his party’s electoral chances in such a precarious state, I don’t know who he is. Way to go, Mr. Former President.

But it’s only September and Republicans do have a few things working in their favor. We may already be in a recession, crime is still a big issue, and so is the non-stop influx of illegal immigrants at our southern border.

And now we have Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, which may not even be legal. I can’t see how that’s going to play well with folks who scrimped and saved and paid off their student loans — or anyone who didn’t go to college and is wondering why he’s subsiding people who did.

In politics, two months is an eternity, and so, a lot can happen between now and November — and probably will. The raid at Trump’s resort in Florida is still big news and the House committee looking into his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol will resume hearings this month — just in time to influence how swing voters feel about our former president and Republicans in general.

And right on cue, just a few days ago, Trump took to social media to declare “the 2020 Election irreparably compromised.” He demanded that we “have a new Election, immediately!”

As I say, he’s the gift to Democrats that keeps on giving, which is why they want the midterm elections to be not about inflation or crime or illegal immigration but about Donald Trump. And knowing how much Trump craves being the center of attention, it’s not crazy to think he just might want the same thing.

Democrats can only hope. Republicans can only worry.
 
gwb-trading said:
Not only the Senate is slipping away in the mid-terms, but the House as well.

Cook Report: GOP control of the House no longer "foregone conclusion"
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/cook-report-gop-control-of-the-house-no-longer-foregone-conclusion

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter says a Republican takeover of the House is "no longer a foregone conclusion," as concern over protecting abortion rights fuels Democratic voter engagement and lower gas prices ease the party's deficit with independent voters.

Driving the news: The publication’s House editor Dave Wasserman on Thursday moved the ratings of five more House seats in Democrats’ direction.
  • The rating changes include the Alaska House seat that Democrat Mary Peltola won in a special election over Trump-backed Republican Sarah Palin. Wasserman rates the Alaska seat a "toss-up" for November.
  • Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, representing a bellwether suburban district that backed President Biden by 6 points, is now rated as the favorite to win re-election against Republican Yesli Vega. "Vega's Todd Akin-like 'hot mic' comments about the likelihood of pregnancy following rape are a godsend to Spanberger," Wasserman writes.
  • Wasserman also points out that "Republican primaries pulling candidates to the right" have been a factor in the improved forecast for Democrats.
Why it matters: While Republicans are still favored to win back a House majority, it's now likelier their margins will be narrower than once expected. And the fact that there's now a path for Democrats to hold their majority, however narrow, is a sea change from expectations just a couple of months ago.

Zoom out: A new Wall Street Journal poll, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone, shows clear Democratic momentum over the summer.
  • Democrats now hold a 3-point edge (47%-44%) on the generic congressional ballot, a significant swing since the pollsters' March 2022 survey. Back then, Republicans held a 5-point advantage.
  • Among political independents, more voters now favor a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican (38%-35%). In March, Republicans led among independents by 12 percentage points.
  • President Biden's job approval rating has jumped to 45%, a 4-point bounce since March. He would comfortably defeat former President Trump in a 2024 rematch, 50%-44%. In March, the two candidates were tied.
But, but, but: There are still plenty of warning signs for overconfident Democrats. Only 23% of respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, and 35% have a favorable view of the economy. Republicans hold a 12-point advantage over Democrats on who's better to get inflation under control.
  • And another Fabrizio and Anzalone poll of Nevada voters (commissioned by AARP) shows Democrats in rough shape. The Nevada survey finds Biden with just a 40% job approval rating, while Democratic incumbents for governor and Senate are statistically tied with their GOP challengers.
The bottom line: Democrats are in the best political position they've been in all year. But campaigns are just beginning to ramp up after the Labor Day weekend, and the party in power is typically more vulnerable to a fickle American electorate.
More...

It seems Republican path to extinction is on schedule. I wonder how many tears will he shed? Perhaps nearly the same number of tears if humans witnessed the extinction of the dinosaurs.

Yes, I’m being too hard on the Republicans (Just did a Freudian and spelled it Repubullcans), but when the party allow themselves to be led by the nose by Democrats for years and seem to consistently put the interests of a few ahead of the rest of us while, it is hard to feel sorry for them. However, Republicans even in their imperfect form, can be an important check and balance to polarized legislative and executive policy.
 
If the Dominion Dems win and run the country into the ground, then China wins domestic control worldwide.
The world will divided between WEF international fascists (which control our military) and China controlled domestic communists.
Russia supports China, they have enough nukes to make threats no one will call them on.
All of this is on Bill Barr and the FBI, for not standing up for free and fair elections.
 
notagain said:
If the Dominion Dems win and run the country into the ground, then China wins domestic control worldwide.
The world will divided between WEF international fascists (which control our military) and China controlled domestic communists.
Russia supports China, they have enough nukes to make threats no one will call them on.
All of this is on Bill Barr and the FBI, for not standing up for free and fair elections.
More...

The only truly meaningful question to ask is if the worlds billionaires will be ok. My sense is regardless of domestic political turmoil or geopolitics, they will continue to do fine. Feel better now?
 
notagain said:
If the Dominion Dems win and run the country into the ground, then China wins domestic control worldwide.
The world will divided between WEF international fascists (which control our military) and China controlled domestic communists.
Russia supports China, they have enough nukes to make threats no one will call them on.
All of this is on Bill Barr and the FBI, for not standing up for free and fair elections.
More...
LOL
 
notagain said:
If the Dominion Dems win and run the country into the ground, then China wins domestic control worldwide.
The world will divided between WEF international fascists (which control our military) and China controlled domestic communists.
Russia supports China, they have enough nukes to make threats no one will call them on.
All of this is on Bill Barr and the FBI, for not standing up for free and fair elections.
More...

Can anyone explain all of this? I’m really interested in what he is trying to say.
 
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