Harley Bassman (BASSMAN, HARLEY)<hbassman2@bloomberg.net>
Jan 28, 2020, 5:06 AM (7 days ago)
"Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes ?"
I was going to quote from scripture, but that is a step too far; so The Eagles will have to do. Ultimately, one either believes or not.
Today's Commentary, "Pigs Can Fly", posits that fiat currency created at a pace faster than the growth of the economy must eventually lead to its devaluation. As such, debt piled as a financial Tower of Babel will meet the same fate.
>>> www.convexitymaven.com/images/Convexity_Maven_Pigs_Can_Fly.pdf
I believe that demographics and politics will pull the curtain back on the Wizards of Western Central Banks to reveal their folly. This will not occur soon, rather over the later half of this decade. Of course, the problem is that markets may well anticipate prior.
Fortunately, as fire insurance is cheap when its raining, so too are certain long-dated risk management tools.
I will caveat that although I am certain of the denouement, it is possible its date is vastly longer than my career; thus, similar to other insurance products, I will not mind if this too expires worthless.
Finally, I am noodling ways to make this idea available to a wider (non-professional) audience, so stay tuned to this site.
Your questions and comments are always welcome at: harley@bassman.net
You may forward this note freely; ping me if you would like to be added to this distribution.
For reference literature on the financial markets - particularly about options and derivatives - I will immodestly direct you to my educational archive at:
>>> www.convexitymaven.com/themavensclassroom.html
The professional trade outlined here requires an ISDA.
Jan 28, 2020, 5:06 AM (7 days ago)
"Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes ?"
I was going to quote from scripture, but that is a step too far; so The Eagles will have to do. Ultimately, one either believes or not.
Today's Commentary, "Pigs Can Fly", posits that fiat currency created at a pace faster than the growth of the economy must eventually lead to its devaluation. As such, debt piled as a financial Tower of Babel will meet the same fate.
>>> www.convexitymaven.com/images/Convexity_Maven_Pigs_Can_Fly.pdf
I believe that demographics and politics will pull the curtain back on the Wizards of Western Central Banks to reveal their folly. This will not occur soon, rather over the later half of this decade. Of course, the problem is that markets may well anticipate prior.
Fortunately, as fire insurance is cheap when its raining, so too are certain long-dated risk management tools.
I will caveat that although I am certain of the denouement, it is possible its date is vastly longer than my career; thus, similar to other insurance products, I will not mind if this too expires worthless.
Finally, I am noodling ways to make this idea available to a wider (non-professional) audience, so stay tuned to this site.
Your questions and comments are always welcome at: harley@bassman.net
You may forward this note freely; ping me if you would like to be added to this distribution.
For reference literature on the financial markets - particularly about options and derivatives - I will immodestly direct you to my educational archive at:
>>> www.convexitymaven.com/themavensclassroom.html
The professional trade outlined here requires an ISDA.
