Contra's FX Journal

reuters survey has it at a 60% chance for QE3 @ 500 billion more in Bond purchases.

however, an interesting point

Equity price returns have displayed the classic theory of diminishing marginal returns: In QE1, the S&P 500 rose more than 70%, in QE2, more than 30% & in the recently concluded *Operation Twist* program, less than 30% as measured from bottom to top. S&P500 is already up nearly 12% since early June.Commodity returns have also followed, though the drop in returns from QE2 wasn't as sharp as QE1. With the Thomson Reuters-Jefferies index up nearly 14% from the July NFP numbers, the bar for chunky additional returns is higher even if Bernanke signals QE3 at Jackson Hole next week._Ironically, the drop in U.S. bond yields were the most between the gaps in QE1 & QE2 and the post QE2 period as markets suffered from large scale risk aversion from the EZ crisis showing how limited the effects of QE has been on bonds even though the Fed's objective for unleasing QE was to bring down longer maturity yields._With a slew of event risks on the horizon (ECB rate mtg, troika mission to Greece in September) and a slowing China in the background, the likelihood of a even more fleeting impact on markets is high
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I'm gonna go with no QE again, I'm on a roll with that one. I may be wrong this time but either way I expect a sell off after that one.
 
Quote from contra:

reuters survey has it at a 60% chance for QE3 @ 500 billion more in Bond purchases.

however, an interesting point



I'm gonna go with no QE again, I'm on a roll with that one. I may be wrong this time but either way I expect a sell off after that one.
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I'm net long usd, and so far it has been a rough way to go
 
Quote from oldtime:

I'm net long usd, and so far it has been a rough way to go
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maybe just a bit too early. In the meantime i gotta stay bull I guess until levels start breaking to the downside and fundamentals and sentiment start backing it up... with king PA.
 
Quote from contra:

. In the meantime i gotta stay bull I guess until levels start breaking to the downside and fundamentals and sentiment start backing it up... with king PA.
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:) Best thing I've read on this site all day
 
Thanks dude. But if this aussie misses his stop by 4 pips it's either really good placement or really lucky placement, either one is fine lol

i see 26.

still think we can get up eventually at this point.
 
not that anyone gives a rats ass, but I have been busy latly with some other work and music stuff but dont think I didn't grab that euro long yesterday! lol Just not fully focused on the market and I don't like trading much when I dont have a finger on the pulse, if there is any at this point...

Still waiting on the beard at JH and sept 6th Draghi and further developments on Greece, but I would think we'll be somewhat locked in a range up here until then atleast Jackson Hole.

There is some decent 2600 exotics in play so that would be a target to the upside for sure especially if we put a higher low in here.

The market is like a broken record with this QE shit, the one thing I've learned is you can go with it on the run up as the market starts pricing it and then square off ahead and be ready for the diapointment or at least the TP's...

eur/aud covering and the China story with Iron Ore isn't helping Aussie much... but I still have some faith in her yet, even though she is sitting kinda stale under 0400 here...
 
Quote from contra:

not that anyone gives a rats ass, but I have been busy latly with some other work and music stuff but dont think I didn't grab that euro long yesterday! lol Just not fully focused on the market and I don't like trading much when I dont have a finger on the pulse, if there is any at this point...

Still waiting on the beard at JH and sept 6th Draghi and further developments on Greece, but I would think we'll be somewhat locked in a range up here until then atleast Jackson Hole.

There is some decent 2600 exotics in play so that would be a target to the upside for sure especially if we put a higher low in here.

The market is like a broken record with this QE shit, the one thing I've learned is you can go with it on the run up as the market starts pricing it and then square off ahead and be ready for the diapointment or at least the TP's...

eur/aud covering and the China story with Iron Ore isn't helping Aussie much... but I still have some faith in her yet, even though she is sitting kinda stale under 0400 here...
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I don't have a rats ass. I do have a posumn I feed everynight. What kind of music stuff?
 
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