Contra's FX Journal

Quote from oldtime:

you got that right, somethings going on with CAD and JPY, I don't have a clue, but something is going on when they move and something is going on when they just sit there. I'll follow the journal, maybe you will figure it out and explain it to me.

at the moment, I'm short USD/CAD from 9890

and long USD/JPY from 79.36

and I certainly don't expect both to be winners or losers

maybe something is going on with USD
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Well we had some moves in US Treasuries lately if you see, 10yr is up from last wed holding above 1.8 - late July yields touched under 1.4.

This effects UJ and USD from investor flows.


CAD is just strong for a few reasons but UCAD could ease back a bit I think, on covering and corporate bids are heavy down here and some USD strength into month end flows maybe, we'll see

Euro is just a shitfest i dont even want to trade it much before Sept 6th. Towards the end of the week carries some heavy headline risk.
 
Quote from contra:

Well we had some moves in US Treasuries lately if you see, 10yr is up from last wed holding above 1.8 - late July yields touched under 1.4.

This effects UJ and USD from investor flows.
More...
yeah it finally pulled back from 135, I guess that is bullish for USD

every tick on that ten year has been painful to me, since I started selling my cash position at 126

I suppose I am happy since I'm slightly net long USD (if JPY will cooperate)
 
Quote from oldtime:

yeah it finally pulled back from 135, I guess that is bullish for USD

every tick on that ten year has been painful to me, since I started selling my cash position at 126

I suppose I am happy since I'm slightly net long USD (if JPY will cooperate)
More...

well either way, we probably shouldn't get too committed to anything just yet on outright spot positions.
 
finally some info.

1st tier ACB selling EUR/USD 1.2465-70
Specs also seen selling short against 1.2500 barriers
1.2478 is 61.8% of 1.2748-1.2042 decline
Day traders have stops positioned under 1.2425-30
Bulk of today's demand has been short-covering, banks report large volumes

figured most of that myself except the ACB part.
 
Quote from atticus:

Asian CB I suppose. Tier 1, lol.
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lol yea never heard the tier 1 part... only with banks.

I guess it never hurts for them to take some profit unless they are trying to defend the barriers, or both as part of the strategy, hedging? who the hell knows, this info on acb's is generally useless to me. I do like the barrier and option info from IFR though. Seems kinda workable with some skill and thought.
 
Quote from contra:

lol. Pretty lame he had to come in here like that. He really took offense when I laughed in the TA works thread.
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when I was a kid those TA guys thought if they got a muscle car they could get a date with the cheerleader.
 
Quote from oldtime:

when I was a kid those TA guys thought if they got a muscle car they could get a date with the cheerleader.
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lol. the good old days... they just don't make cars like they used to. Some of the suspension systems in these new cars are just awesome though.

speaking of which, I am not a big Benz fan... but I saw one not long ago, not sure of the model but this thing was badass.. sounded like a souped up stang as it rolled up, and this thing took off. I was slightly impressed.
 
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